Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Spread Prediction:
Look for the Los Angeles Rams to cover the spread as 3-point home favorites.
Why I like the Rams to cover the spread vs. the Steelers in Week 7:
The Los Angeles Rams have Cooper Kupp back, and that has helped Matthew Stafford. At the same time, it has helped their running game and certainly helps their defense because it keeps their offense on the field.
Having Kupp has already helped them move up six spots in DVOA as they are currently ranked No. 12 overall (No. 5 on offense and No. 18 on defense). I think that trend continues.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers are at No. 20 in DVOA overall, and while their defense is a respectable No. 11, it will be hard to sustain that with a terrible offense (No. 28).
As our leader Warren Sharp pointed out a couple of weeks ago, the Steeler offense is at the bottom of so many offensive categories in efficiency and things that lead to that.
To add to their problems, Kenny Pickett is middle of the pack at best in accuracy.
But the most difficult thing for the Steelers to overcome may be the fact that the time he holds the ball on pass plays is in the bottom fourth of the league. That will give Aaron Donald and crew time to get pressure on him, create some sacks, and put them in some bad downs and distances while ending some drives just based on that.
The 12.6 points per game they average on offense certainly won’t be enough to beat the Rams, even with sack leader T.J. Watt on their team rushing Stafford.
Offensively, the Rams are No. 7 in the NFL in yards per attempt passing and, again, the addition of Kupp will not hurt that, possibly opening the game up even more for others.
Their run game is solid and that balance will be good against a very decent Steeler defense that has carried this team, and, I could argue, won two games in spite of their bad offense.
That is so hard to sustain as a defense that isn’t completely dominant and not even ranked in the top 10 in DVOA. I think the loss of Van Jefferson actually helps the Rams by giving them more continuity at receiver.
I am looking for a 27-14 Rams win over the Steelers.
Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers Spread Prediction:
