College Bowl Game Predictions, Picks & Analysis for Every Game

The matchups for every 2024 Bowl Game as well as the new expanded College Football Playoff have been announced.

The only thing left to do is dominate your bowl pick 'em pool.

We are here to help with predictions and analysis for every 2024 Bowl Game as well as some strategies to use in your bowl pick 'em pool.

These picks will continue to be updated throughout bowl season, especially as we get news of players opting out.

Since players opting out and transferring can wildly swing expectations for a game, it's advisable to join a pool in which you can change your selections up until the kickoff of each bowl game.

2024 Bowl Game Picks:

Current Record: 28-15

2024 Bowl Game Analysis and Predictions, Every Bowl Game:

 Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs. Liberty

• Predicted Winner: Buffalo
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Bahamas Bowl Analysis: 

Liberty will be without quarterback Kaidon Salter, running back Quinton Cooley, two starting offensive lineman and a handful of others. 

Buffalo is expected to have nearly its entire roster, including all starters on the field. 

Liberty is one of the nation’s most run-heavy teams and should have some success finding running lanes based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Liberty: ranked 12th in yards before contact
• Buffalo: ranked 109th in yards before contact allowed

However, Salter played a significant role in the run game as well, averaging 8.6 attempts for 62.3 yards per game, excluding sacks. Backup Ryan Burger is less of a threat with his legs.

Buffalo is also a run heavy offense, and while it does not have a great offensive line the Bulls may be able to move the ball on Liberty based on these numbers:

• Buffalo: ranked 86th in yards before contact
• Liberty: ranked 114th in yards before contact

Completed Bowl Games:

Celebration Bowl: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

• Predicted Winner: Jackson State
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Celebration Bowl Analysis: 

Proceed with caution in this game as both quarterbacks are dealing with injuries.

Jackson State’s Jacobian Morgan was injured in the season finale, and South Carolina State’s Eric Phoenix missed the final game and a half. 

Even if the quarterbacks are healthy, expect a relatively low scoring game as both squads rank in the top 20 of scoring defense. 

Jackson State has a prolific rushing attack led by Irv Mulligan, so give a slight edge to the Tigers.

Salute to Veterans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Michigan

• Predicted Winner: South Alabama
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Salute to Veterans Bowl Analysis: 

[Update 12/14: South Alabama will be without leading passer (Gio Lopez), leading rusher (Fluff Bothwell) and receiver (Jamaal Pritchett). Stick with the Jaguars as the pick, but downgrade them to the 6-10 point range]

South Alabama is a heavy favorite but might be without its quarterback Gio Lopez and star running back Fluff Bothwell. Lopez was injured in the season finale (a loss to Texas State) while Bothwell has hit the transfer portal.

The loss of Bothwell could be significant, as the Jaguars’ strength is their rushing attack which ranks sixth in the nation in explosive rush rate (19% of carries for 10+ yards). 

Fortunately for the Jaguars, Kentrell Bullock is a capable backup ball carrier and he should have success against a pitiful Western Michigan run defense. 

Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers for the Broncos defense:

• Ranked 132nd in yards before contact allowed
• Ranked 111th in yards after contact allowed

South Alabama has some issues on defense as well, but mostly against the pass. Western Michigan’s pass rate is 6% below expected based on situational data, per Campus2Canton, so this looks like a favorable matchup for the Jaguars.

Frisco Bowl: Memphis vs West Virginia

• Predicted Winner: Memphis
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Frisco Bowl Analysis: 

West Virginia fired head coach and offensive play-caller Neal Brown after the season. 

The interim head coach is Chad Scott, who had been the offensive coordinator. Now Scott will be both a head coach and a play-caller for the first time in his career 一 a tough ask against a quality opponent. 

Brown ran a run-heavy offense this season, with a pass rate 7.3% below expected per Campus2Canton. Scott, who is also the team’s running backs coach, will probably stick with that game plan. 

Memphis’ defense ranks 13th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions, and should have no issues slowing down the West Virginia attack. 

In terms of motivation, Memphis also holds a clear advantage as the team is trying to reach 11 wins for just the second time in school history. 

Four-year starting quarterback Seth Heningan has been one of the most prolific passers in Memphis history and will be hoping to end his career on a high note. 

Boca Raton Bowl:  Western Kentucky vs. James Madison

• Predicted Winner: Western Kentucky
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Boca Raton Bowl Analysis: 

[Update 12/16: Caden Veltkamp has said he will play and is delaying his on-campus portal visits until after the bowl game. So stick with WKU as the pick.]

James Madison’s offense was carried by quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who is injured and will not play in the bowl game. 

Barnett’s backup during the regular season was Dylan Morris, a former two-year starter at Washington, but Morris just underwent season-ending surgery. That leaves third-stringer Billy Atkins to start.

In his lone career start in 2022, Atkins threw four interceptions and took seven sacks. 

Western Kentucky has a number of players in the transfer portal, including quarterback Caden Veltkamp. 

That potentially creates chaos for WKU, but a year ago Veltkamp was in the portal, played in the bowl game anyway and returned to school. So don’t assume Veltkamp and others are opt-outs just because they’re in the portal. 

Veltkamp’s backup is TJ Finley, who began the season as the starter and played well as Texas State’s starter in 2023. Finley is also in the portal.

If we find out neither Veltkamp nor Finley are playing, switch this pick to James Madison, which has a better defense and should win a battle of third-string quarterbacks. 

Otherwise, trust Western Kentucky’s head coach Tyson Helton, who is 4-1 in bowl games, to have his team prepared to pull off this upset.

LA Bowl: UNLV vs. California

• Predicted Winner: UNLV
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

LA Bowl Analysis: 

[Update 12/18: Cal freshman quarterback EJ Caminong has been getting significant reps in practice and is expected to see the field, potentially as the starter. Sounds like Cal is treating this a true exhibition game, so boost your confidence in UNLV.]

Cal will be without starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who is in the transfer portal. 

Mendoza carried the team this season, as the run game sputtered with star running back Jadyn Ott playing through an injury. 

According to Campus2Canton, Cal had a pass rate 7.1% above expected, so Mendoza is a significant loss. 

To further complicate things, backup Chandler Rogers is questionable due to an injury. That could leave third stringer CJ Harris 一 a transfer from Ohio, who backed up Kurtis Rourke the past few years 一 as Cal’s starter. 

Whether Rogers or Harris starts, Cal will probably want to lean on the run game, but that won’t be easy against this UNLV defense. 

Take a look at the run-game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions: 

• Cal: ranked 37th in yards before contact
• UNLV: ranked 10th in yards before contact allowed
• Cal: ranked 124th in yards after contact
• UNLV: ranked 42nd in yards after contact allowed

UNLV will be without head coach Barry Odom (now at Purdue) but otherwise appears to be mostly unharmed by the portal. And some of the players in the portal have already said they plan to play, most notably cornerback Tony Grimes.

Expect the Rebels to be motivated to win their first bowl game since 2000.

New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston

• Predicted Winner: Sam Houston
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

New Orleans Bowl Analysis: 

This is Sam Houston’s first bowl game after transitioning to FBS in 2023. 

Bearkats head coach KC Keeler left to take the job at Temple, which prompted a long list of players to enter the portal, though some are expected to still play in this game. 

Despite the coach and transfer losses, Sam Houston is likely motivated to win the first bowl game in school history. 

Georgia Southern is essentially a perennial bowl team at this point, but haven’t won a bowl since 2020. So most of the roster has never won a bowl, which may provide some motivation. 

Sam Houston utilizes a run-heavy offense to bleed the clock which allows it to win with a dominant defense. 

Georgia Southern is more of a pass-heavy team, so the question will be: can Sam Houston create enough pressure to disrupt JC French and the Eagles’ passing attack?

Take a look at the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

• Georgia Southern: ranked 39th in pressure rate
• Sam Houston: ranked 24th in pressure rate generated

Sam Houston does not have a good offense, but it can probably run the ball on a terrible Georgia Southern defense. 

The Bearkats do a nice job of spreading teams out and creating light boxes for their ball carriers 58% of the time, which is a nightmare matchup for Georgia Southern. The Eagles are allowing an absurd 7.3 yards per carry when lined up in a light box, ranked 129th per Sports Info Solutions.

Cure Bowl: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State

• Predicted Winner: Ohio
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Cure Bowl Analysis: 

Both teams have lost their head coach to another job, but only Jacksonville State is losing players to the portal. 

Jacksonville State has 13 players in the portal including the entire starting secondary. It’s possible some will suit up for this game, but a few have already signed with new schools including Reginald Hughes, who led the defense with 26 pressures. 

Ohio does not have a single player in the transfer portal. 

Even before Jacksonville State’s attrition, Ohio probably held an edge in this matchup anyway, as its run-heavy offense should be able to move the ball. 

The Bobcats rank 40th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact on the ground, compared to the 81st-ranked Gamecocks defense, according to Sports Info Solutions. 

Gasparilla Bowl: Tulane vs. Florida

• Predicted Winner: Florida
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Gasparilla Bowl Analysis: 

Florida dramatically exceeded expectations down the stretch this season after freshman D.J. Lagway took over at quarterback. With a win in this game, Florida will likely be a trendy playoff pick entering the 2025 season. 

Normally a game against the SEC would be Tulane’s Super Bowl, but the Green Wave will be without a number of key players, most notably starting quarterback Darian Mensah and pass-rusher Matthew Fobbs-White, who led the defense in pressure rate. 

Florida has been a run-heavy offense this year, which likely gives the Gators an edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Florida: ranked 15th in yards before contact
• Tulane: ranked 42nd in yards before contact allowed
• Florida: ranked 26th in yards after contact
• Tulane: ranked 124th in yards after contact allowed

Expect Florida to lean heavily on the run game, as Tulane’s secondary has been strong. The Wave rank fifth in the nation in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield. 

Tulane also leans on a run-heavy scheme, but tends to line up in heavy formations which allows the defense to stack the box. 

Florida has some weaknesses on defense, but it’s stacked-box run defense has been strong:

• 1.5 yards before contact allowed, ranked 36th
• 4.0 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 37th

College Football Playoff First Round: Indiana at Notre Dame

• Predicted Winner: Notre Dame
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Analysis:

Click here for the full-game breakdown and best bet for Indiana vs. Notre Dame.

College Football Playoff First Round: Penn State at SMU

• Predicted Winner: Penn State
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Penn State vs. SMU Analysis:

Click here for the full-game breakdown and best bet for Penn State vs. SMU.

College Football Playoff First Round: Clemson at Texas

• Predicted Winner: Texas
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Clemson vs. Texas Analysis:

Click here for the full-game breakdown and best bet for Clemson vs. Texas.

College Football Playoff First Round: Tennessee at Ohio State

• Predicted Winner: Ohio State
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Tennessee vs. Ohio State Analysis:

Click here for the full-game breakdown and best bet for Tennessee vs. Ohio State.

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA

• Predicted Winner: UTSA
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Myrtle Beach Bowl Analysis: 

This is a home game for Coastal Carolina, but that isn’t necessarily a good thing for a team coming off a disappointing 6-6 season. The lack of a heightened atmosphere around the game might make it feel like they’re just going through the motions one last time. 

Coastal has lost both its quarterbacks to the portal, Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim, which leaves redshirt-freshman Tad Hudson as the starter. Hudson has never taken the field for the Chanticleers. 

Expect the Chanticleers to be without others, as they have 31 players in the transfer portal. Right tackle Zovon Lindsay is also out, as he entered the NFL draft. 

UTSA will be without AAC defensive player of the year Jimmori Robinson, but five others who are turning pro have said they will still play in the bowl game. Robinson led the team with 43 pressures 一 no one else had more than 20. 

Coastal leans on a run-heavy offense and will likely try to keep the ball out of Hudson’s hands as much as possible. However, this looks like a tough matchup on the ground based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Coastal Carolina: ranked 83rd in yards before contact
• UTSA: ranked second in yards before contact allowed

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Fresno State vs. Northern Illinois

• Predicted Winner: Northern Illinois
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Analysis: 

Even if you follow these teams you’re not going to recognize the players on the field. At least 13 starters from these teams will not be suiting up, including both quarterbacks. 

During the regular season Northern Illinois had a pass rate 9.1% below expected, ranked 124th in the country. So expect the Huskies to lean even more heavily on the run game without their quarterback. 

Due to the predictable offense and a preference for heavy formations, NIU running backs have faced a stacked box 82% of the time, the third highest rate per Sports Info Solutions. 

That trend bodes well for Fresno State based on their defensive production with a stacked box:

• 1.4 yards before contact allowed, ranked 33rd
• 3.6 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 25th

Fresno State ran a pass-heavy offense during the regular season and might not have the confidence in its quarterbacks to do so in this matchup. 

The Bulldogs should be concerned about their ability to protect their quarterbacks based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Fresno State: ranked 115th in pressure rate allowed
• Northern Illinois: ranked 18th in pressure rate generated

However, three of the Huskies top five pass-rushers have transferred. 

I’m picking Northern Illinois primarily due to the Huskies having a quarterback with at least some experience. This might be the most chaotic bowl game of the season in terms of the number of backups we’ll see on the field. So don’t put many confidence points on it.

Hawaii Bowl: South Florida vs. San Jose State

• Predicted Winner: South Florida
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Hawaii Bowl Analysis: 

This is a tough game to predict until we know the status of the game’s best player, South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown. 

Brown hasn’t played since Week 5, but reportedly might suit up on Tuesday. 

South Florida had high expectations this year but a brutal schedule started the Bulls out with a 2-4 record. Those four losses, however, were to Alabama, Miami, Tulane and Memphis 一 teams that went a combined 38-10 during the regular season. 

Even without Brown, the team rallied to win four of its last six games. So this is probably a slightly underrated South Florida squad. 

If Brown does play, expect him to have success running the ball on the San Jose State defense. The Spartans ranked 76th in opponent-adjusted rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks and Brown is one of the sport’s most electric athletes at the position. 

San Jose State runs the nation’s third most pass-heavy offense, throwing the ball at a rate 16% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton. 

This won’t be the same San Jose Staten offense, however, as it will be without superstar receiver Nick Nash.

Nash led the nation in receptions, yards and touchdowns this season, and had a 37% target share for the Spartans. 

The downfield passing attack might take a big hit without Nash. San Jose State leads the nation in attempts at 15 or more yards downfield outside the red zone (10.7 per game). 

In order to maintain that aggressive attack, the Spartans will need to protect quarterback Walker Eget from a formidable South Florida pass rate. The pass protection battle should be a good one based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• San Jose State: ranked fourth in pressure rate allowed
• South Florida: ranked eighth in pressure rate generated

San Jose State faced just two teams ranked in the top 50 by that metric this season (Fresno State and Boise State). The Spartans lost both games by three scores while putting up 31 combined points.

In his eight starts, Eger threw eight interceptions and took four sacks 一 with four interceptions and three sacks against Boise and Fresno.

GameAbove Sports Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Toledo

• Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

GameAbove Sports Bowl Analysis: 

Check back on this game close to kickoff because the status of Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein could determine the outcome. 

Holstein left Pitt’s game on November 23 with a leg injury and did not play in the season finale, but is reportedly close to being cleared. 

Backup quarterback Nate Yarnell has already transferred to Texas State, so redshirt-freshman David Lynch would be the starter if Holstein cannot go. Lynch has played just a handful of snaps in his career. 

Pitt transitioned to an uptempo, pass-heavy offense under new coordinator Kade Bell this year, so quarterback play will be critical to the team’s success. 

Whoever takes snaps for Pitt likely won’t feel much pressure from a Toledo pass rush which ranks 127th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions. That should give Pitt an edge even if Lynch is forced into action. 

Toledo also leans on the passing attack, but might struggle to protect quarterback Tucker Gleason based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports info Solutions:

• Toledo: ranked 32nd in pressure rate allowed
• Pittsburgh: ranked 19th in pressure rate generated

Take Pitt regardless but if Holstein starts, bump Pitt's confidence points to the 36-40 range and drop Alabama's to the 31-35 range.

Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. Kansas State

• Predicted Winner: Kansas State
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Rate Bowl Analysis: 

Kansas State will be without star running back DJ Giddens, who entered the NFL. 

The Wildcats will miss Giddens in the power run game. However, former four-star recruit Dylan Edwards, a transfer from Colorado, should be capable of filling in. 

Based on these opponent-adjusted metrics from Sports Info Solutions, Kansas State holds a clear edge in the run game:

• Kansas State: ranked eighth in yards before contact
• Rutgers: ranked 133rd in yards before contact allowed

Rutgers will also be without its lead back Kyle Monangai, which will be a more significant loss. 

Take a look at the run game matchup when the Scarlet Knights are on offense:

• Rutgers: ranked 133rd in yards before contact
• Kansas State: ranked 44th in yards before contact allowed
• Rutgers: ranked fifth in yards after contact
• Kansas State: ranked 34th in yards after contact allowed

Monangai ranked 36th in the country in broken/missed tackles rate, which greatly contributed to Rutgers’ after-contact production 一 but Monangai’s rate almost tripled that of backup Antwan Raymond. 

68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State

• Predicted Winner: Bowling Green
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

68 VenturesBowl Analysis: 

It sounds like Bowling Green is motivated to win just its second bowl in the last 20 years as the entire starting lineup is expected to play, including star tight end Harold Fannin Jr. 

The Falcons don’t have a great offense, but sixth-year senior quarterback Connor Bazelak should have success against a weak Arkansas State defense. 

A few key stats on the Red Wolves defense:

• Ranked 129th in explosive play rate allowed
• Ranked 120th in rate of forcing third-and-longs

Arkansas State runs a balanced offense but doesn’t excel in any one area. 

The Bowling Green defense ranks second in the nation in forcing teams into third-and-long situations, and should cause problems for an Arkansas State squad that went 1-4 against bowl-eligible teams this season.

Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Navy

• Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Armed Forces Analysis: 

Oklahoma’s offense has been decimated by injuries and the transfer portal, but it was a pathetic unit all season, so that doesn’t change much. 

The Sooners ranked 133rd in explosive play rate and 95th in scoring offense. 

Michael Hawkins will make his fourth start of the year at quarterback for the Sooners, as Jackson Arnold has transferred to Auburn. 

Oklahoma is likely to lean on the run game, as the offensive line remains intact. The Sooners should have an edge in that area, based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Oklahoma: ranked 32nd in yards before contact
• Navy: ranked 48th in yards before contact allowed

Navy runs a modernized version of the triple-option offense, but still only throws the ball at a rate 19% below expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton. 

The Sooners haven’t faced a triple-option team this year, but the run defense has been nasty, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

• ranked eighth in yards before contact allowed
• ranked ninth in yards after contact allowed

Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt

• Predicted Winner: Georgia Tech
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Birmingham Analysis: 

Georgia Tech will be without a few starters, most notably receiver Eric Singleton, but quarterback Haynes King is going to take the field. 

The Yellow Jackets offense should have no problems moving the ball against a Vanderbilt defense which ranks 115th in explosive play rate allowed. 

Georgia Tech runs a slightly run-heavy offense and should lean on the run in this matchup, where it holds a clear advantage based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Georgia Tech: ranked 22nd in yards before contact
• Vanderbilt: ranked 72nd in yards before contact
• Georgia Tech: ranked 78th in yards after contact
• Vanderbilt: ranked 120th in yards after contact

King should also have success throwing the ball, as Vanderbilt ranked 132nd in completion rate allowed on throws 15 or more yards downfield. King ranks 47th by the same metric. 

Vandy will try to pull off the upset by running the ball and dominating time of possession. And the strategy has a chance to work because Georgia Tech has been vulnerable against the run. 

The Commodores primarily run the ball from heavy formations, allowing opponents to stack the box 64% of the time, per Sports Info Solutions. 

Georgia Tech has struggled defending the run from a stacked box, allowing 5.1 yards per attempt, ranked 110th.

Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas

• Predicted Winner: Texas Tech
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Liberty Bowl Analysis: 

Texas Tech lost a few players to the portal and will be without starting quarterback Behren Morton due to injury. 

However, Arkansas’ roster has been completely blown up by portal losses and opt outs and it’s hard to imagine there’s much motivation for the Razorbacks. 

Most notably, Arkansas lost three starting offensive linemen to the portal and will have just six scholarship linemen available for the game. 

This is especially problematic because the offensive line was one of Arkansas’ few consistent strengths. The Razorbacks ranked 11th in opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact, but that edge is likely gone.

Starting running back Ja’Quinden Jackson has also opted out, leaving Rodney Hill, who had just 20 carries on the year, to take over. 

Expect Arkansas to lean on quarterback Taylen Green more in the run game. 

Texas Tech ranks 92nd in opponent-adjusted rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, so it’s a strategy which might give the Razorbacks a chance.

Holiday Bowl: Syracuse vs. Washington State

• Predicted Winner: Syracuse
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Holiday Bowl Analysis: 

Washington State has 10 starters in the transfer portal, including quarterback John Mateer and running back Wayshawn Parker. 

Syracuse has almost everyone suiting up for the game, including quarterback Kyle McCord. 

The Orange run one of the nation’s most pass-heavy offenses and McCord should be able to throw the ball all over the Cougs secondary that is likely without two starting corners. 

McCord should have all day to throw from the pocket too, and likely would have even against a full Washington State roster based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Syracuse: ranked 18th in pressure rate allowed
• Washington State: ranked 119 in pressure rate generated

The Cougs will be lucky if this one isn’t out of hand by halftime. 

Las Vegas Bowl: USC vs. Texas A&M

• Predicted Winner: Texas A&M
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Las Vegas Bowl Analysis: 

Both teams will be without significant players for this game. However, morale is probably higher on A&M’s side, as most of the Aggies’ key losses are due to NFL draft opt-outs rather than transfers. 

There’s also reason to believe the Aggies’ offense will be improved as Marcel Reed has had time to practice as the starter the last few weeks. Reed took over for Conner Weigman during the season, and is better suited to run offensive coordinator Collin Klein’s offense. 

Klein, formerly at Kansas State, has often relied on quarterbacks who can handle designed runs as a critical part of the offense. That wasn’t Weigman’s strength though, so there were likely aspects of the offense not fully installed during the season. 

Expect the Aggies to run the ball well on USC. The Trojans ranked 129th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions. 

Texas A&M should also have a healthy Rueben Owens, who was expected to be the starting running back this year but an injury kept him out until the season finale. 

USC might be able to run the ball on Texas A&M also, especially as the Aggies will be without NFL draft prospects Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart and Shemar Turner on the defensive line. 

Partially due to Lincoln Riley’s spread offense, USC ranked second in the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact generated, according to Sports Info Solutions. 

However, USC will be without its top two running backs, Woody Marks (NFL draft) and Quinten Joyner (transfer). 

Fenway Bowl: North Carolina vs UConn

• Predicted Winner: UConn
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Fenway Bowl Analysis: 

North Carolina’s offense revolved around running back Omarion Hampton, who has opted out to enter the NFL draft. 

Hampton ranked 30th in yards after contact per attempt and 23rd in broken/missed tackle rate, per Sports Info Solutions. 

Three-star true freshman Davion Gause is expected to start at running back for the Tar Heels, and the downgrade could play a big role in this game. 

UConn’s defense ranks 29th in contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage, and 24th in stuff rate (gains of zero or negative yards), per Sports Info Solutions. 

In the passing game, the Tar Heels have been aggressive 一 they rank 38th in rate of throwing 15 or more yards downfield. 

However, quarterback Jacolby Criswell ranks 129th in completion rate at that depth and UConn’s ranks 37th by the same metric. 

On offense, UConn leans on the run game and should be able to move the ball as North Carolina’s already porous defense will be without its two best linemen Jahvaree Ritzie and Kaimon Rucker, who declared for the draft. 

Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Nebraska

• Predicted Winner: Boston College
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Pinstripe Bowl Analysis: 

Boston College’s offense got a spark from quarterback Grayson James, who took over during the final three games of the season after Thomas Castellanos got benched. 

Nebraska’s defense has been strong, but the Huskers are without a few starters and multiple contributing backups who entered the portal. 

Take a look at the run game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Boston College: ranked 48th in yards before contact
• Nebraska: ranked 20th in yards before contact allowed
• Boston College: ranked 56th in yards after contact
• Nebraska: ranked 74th in yard after contact allowed

If Nebraska’s defense takes a step back for the bowl game, the Eagles may be able to control this game on the ground. 

Nebraska’s offense struggled this year in Dylan Raiola’s true freshman season, but there’s a chance it improves with a few weeks of practice under new coordinator Dana Holgorsen, who joined the team in November.

Boston College ranks 31st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, so Raiola will need to perform under duress in this contest. 

During the regular season, Nebraska’s offense generated -1 EPA or worse on 34% of plays when Raiola was pressured, ranked 77th, per Sports Info Solutions.

New Mexico Bowl: TCU vs. Louisiana

• Predicted Winner: TCU
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

New Mexico Bowl Analysis: 

Louisiana quarterback Ben Woolridge, who missed the conference championship game due to injury, is expected to play. If he doesn’t suit up, however, Louisiana will be down to its third-string quarterback.

A healthy Wooldridge gives Louisiana a chance, but it will still be difficult for the Ragin' Cajuns defense to contain TCU’s offense led by quarterback Josh Hoover. 

Louisiana likely won’t get any pressure on Hoover based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• TCU: ranked sixth in pressure rate allowed
• Louisiana: ranked 116th in pressure rate generated

The Ragin' Cajuns do have a strong pass defense, however, and they lead the nation in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield. 

Louisiana’s weakness is defending the run, but TCU throws the ball at a rate 12% above expected, based on situational data from Campus2Canton. 

TCU’s spread offense creates light boxes for its ball carriers, which is problematic for a Louisiana defense ranked 103rd in yards per attempt allowed with a light box. 

It should be an easy win for TCU, but if the Frogs stubbornly refuse to run the ball, Louisiana has a shot at an upset. 

Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami FL

• Predicted Winner: Iowa State 
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Pop-Tarts Bowl Analysis: 

Iowa State is perfectly built to pull off an upset Cam Ward and Miami. 

The Hurricanes, as per tradition, are one of the nation’s least disciplined teams and rank 121st in penalties. On the other side, no team commits fewer penalties than the Cyclones. 

Ward is also a risk-taker with the football, which leads to big plays but also costly mistakes at times. 

Ward’s style is more concerning against a team like Iowa State, which ranks third in the nation in ball-hawk rate, making a play on the ball 17% of pass attempts, per Sports Info Solutions. 

For Miami to win, it will need to avoid those costly mistakes and cash in on big plays instead. The Hurricanes lead the nation in explosive play rate, while Iowa State’s defense only ranks 63rd by the same metric. 

Arizona Bowl: Miami OH vs. Colorado State

• Predicted Winner: Miami OH
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Arizona Bowl Analysis: 

Miami is known for its defense but might have more of an edge on offense in this matchup. 

Colorado State fired its defensive coordinator after the season and then lost three defensive starters to the portal. 

The RedHawks run a slightly pass-heavy offense with sixth-year senior quarterback Brett Gabbert, who should have time to throw based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Miami: ranked 24th in pressure rate allowed
• Colorado State: ranked 104th in pressure rate generated

Colorado State is also likely to struggle to move the ball against a Miami defense ranked third in the nation in explosive play rate allowed. 

 Military Bowl: East Carolina vs. NC State

• Predicted Winner: NC State
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Military Bowl Analysis: 

These in-state rivals play somewhat regularly, and have split the series 3-3 since 2010. 

East Carolina will likely be without two starting receivers as Winston Wright declared for the NFL draft and Chase Sowell entered the portal. 

The Pirates offense has relied on big plays, and ranked 22nd in explosive play rate, but that will be more challenging without Sowell and Wright. 

NC State will be without star receiver KC Concepcion, who entered the portal, but the majority of the Wolfpack roster is expected to be available.

Wolfpack freshman quarterback CJ Bailey will need to protect the ball against an East Carolina secondary which ranks 28th in ball-hawk rate. 

 Alamo Bowl: BYU vs. Colorado

• Predicted Winner: Colorado
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Alamo Bowl Analysis: 

Yes, these teams are both in the Big 12. Conference games are extremely rare in bowl games, but this happened because the old Pac-12 teams are still bound by their former Pac-12 bowl affiliations. 

Colorado has lost a few transfers but the rest of the team is expected to suit up, including Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. 

BYU is also expected to be close to full strength, only losing one starter to the portal. 

The Cougars offense is likely to have a tough day against the Colorado defense, especially in the passing game. The Buffaloes rank third in the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated. 

However, BYU has a chance at an upset as its defensive strength has been defending the pass 一 a key factor against ultra pass-heavy Colorado. 

Some key numbers for the BYU defense from Sports Info Solutions:

• Ranked 21st in explosive play rate allowed
• Ranked 22nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate
• Ranked 34th in completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards

Fortunately for Sanders, BYU ranks 133rd in sack conversion rate, turning just 10.3% of pressures into sacks. 

 Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. Army

• Predicted Winner: Army
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Independence Bowl Analysis: 

Louisiana Tech earned a late invitation to this game when Marshall elected to opt out due to transfer portal losses. 

The Bulldogs run a balanced offense, but expect them to lean on the passing game in this matchup. Army ranks 132nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate, so Louisiana Tech quarterback Evan Bullock should have time in the pocket. 

When he’s not pressured, Bullock is completing 70% of his throws for 7.3 yards per attempt, per Sports Info Solutions. 

The challenge for Louisiana Tech will be stopping Army’s triple-option offense. The Bulldogs have not faced a triple-option team in a few seasons and only saw 15 option plays from opponents this season.

Music City Bowl: Missouri vs. Iowa

• Predicted Winner: Iowa
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Music City Bowl Analysis: 

Iowa wants to run the ball and it should be able to do so based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Iowa: ranked 16th in yards before contact
• Missouri: ranked 34th in yards before contact allowed
• Iowa: ranked 16th in yards after contact
• Missouri: ranked 117th in yards after contact allowed

Iowa typically runs the ball from 12 or 21 personnel, which allows defenses to stack the box. However, Missouri has struggled with a stacked box this year, allowing 4.8 yards per attempt, ranked 90th. 

Missouri runs more of a balanced offense but will be without receivers Luther Burden (NFL draft) and Mookie Cooper (injured). The Tigers are also missing center Connor Tollison (injury) and right tackle Armand Membou (NFL draft).

Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers, Missouri might have an edge in the run game:

• Missouri: ranked 41st in yards before contact
• Iowa: ranked 75th in yards before contact allowed

However, without two offensive linemen, it’s uncertain whether Missouri can maintain that production. 

Iowa is also the more disciplined team 一 ranked sixth in turnover margin, second in penalty yardage 一 and is better equipped to win a close game. 

ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan

• Predicted Winner: Alabama
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

ReliaQuest Bowl Analysis: 

Michigan will be without tight end Colston Loveland and running backs Kaleel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, leaving Michigan’s offense devoid of talent. 

Even with those three, Michigan ranked 129th in explosive play rate during the regular season. 

Alabama has some opt outs as well, but quarterback Jalen Milroe and receiver Ryan Williams are expected to play. That should be more than enough for the Tide to outscore Michigan, especially without its best defensive players Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham, Will Johnson and Josiah Stewart. 

After all those opt-outs, this might be the worst team Michigan has put on the field in decades. 

The only thing potentially standing in Alabama’s way of an easy win is motivation, as the Tide are playing in their most inconsequential bowl game since the 2007 Independence Bowl. 

Sun Bowl: Louisville vs. Washington

• Predicted Winner: Louisville 
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Sun Bowl Analysis: 

This will be a battle of backup quarterbacks, though there’s a little more optimism on Washington’s side in that department. 

Washington has benched Will Rogers in favor of four-star true freshman Demond Williams Jr. Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough opted out, leaving the Cardinals with fifth-year senior and career backup Harrison Bailey. 

That said, Bailey has more talent around him, especially with wide receiver Caullin Lacy returning for the bowl game after redshirting this year (bowl games don’t count toward redshirt seasons). 

This is a tough spot for Williams, as Louisville’s pass rush will likely cause problems for the Huskies offense based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

• Washington: ranked 81st in pressure rate allowed
• Louisville: ranked 30th in pressure rate generated

Though it’s worth noting the Cards will be without Leading pass-rusher Ashton Gillotte. However, Louisville has enough other pass-rushers to get to Williams, who took a ridiculous 10 sacks in his first career start against Oregon 一 he took a sack on 30% of his dropbacks. 

Louisville should also be able to shut down Jonah Williams and the Huskies rushing attack based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Washington: ranked 122nd in yards before contact
• Louisville: ranked 21st in yards before contact allowed
• Washington: ranked 11th in yards after contact
• Louisville: ranked 18th in yards after contact allowed

since the 2007 Independence Bowl. 

Citrus Bowl: South Carolina vs. Illinois

• Predicted Winner: South Carolina
• Confidence Points: 41-37 point range

Citrus Bowl Analysis: 

The LaNorris Sellers 2025 Heisman campaign starts now. 

And we should expect a big day from Sellers against a vulnerable Illini defense. 

Based on opponent-adjusted numbers, Illinois ranks 122nd in quarterback rushing yards allowed. Excluding sacks, Sellers is averaging 76.9 yards per game on the ground. 

South Carolina won’t have Rocket Sanders in the backfield for this game, but the Gamecocks should still run all over this Illinois defense. 

Illinois ranks 131st in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions. 

Texas Bowl: Baylor vs. LSU

• Predicted Winner: Baylor
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Texas Bowl Analysis: 

Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will be on the field for LSU, but not much else returns from the Tigers offense. 

Nussmeier will be without both his offensive tackles and his top weapon (Kyren Lacy). 

Without their two future NFL tackles, expect LSU to have problems with Baylor’s pass rush. 

Check out how these teams matched up in that area in the regular season based on opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

• LSU: ranked 44th in pressure rate allowed
• Baylor: ranked 14th in pressure rate generated

Baylor’s defense was susceptible to big plays 一 it ranks 103rd in explosive play rate allowed 一 but Lacy and fellow opt-out Mason Taylor account for 42% of LSU’s 20-yard pass plays.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal: Penn State vs. Boise State

• Predicted Winner: Penn State
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Penn State vs. Boise State Analysis:

Click here for the full-game breakdown and best bet for Penn State vs. Boise State.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal: Texas vs. Arizona State

• Predicted Winner: Texas
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Texas vs. Arizona State Analysis:

Click here for the full-game breakdown and best bet for Texas vs. Arizona State.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal: Ohio State vs. Oregon

• Predicted Winner: Ohio State
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Ohio State vs. Oregon Analysis:

Click here for the full-game breakdown and best bet for Ohio State vs. Oregon.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal: Georgia vs. Notre Dame

• Predicted Winner: Georgia
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Georgia vs. Notre Dame Analysis:

Click here for the full-game breakdown and best bet for Georgia vs. Notre Dame.

Gator Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Duke

• Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Gator Bowl Analysis: 

There’s a lot of pressure on Lane Kiffin to win this one after talking trash against some of the teams selected to the CFP over his Rebels. 

Fortunately for Kiffin, Duke likely won’t put up much of a fight with third-string quarterback Henry Belin IV. 

Ole Miss has surprisingly few opt outs for this bowl. Most notably, quarterback Jaxson Dart and leading pass-rusher Princely Umanmielen have stated their intention to play. 

Duke will likely shift to a more run-heavy approach in this game due to the quarterback situation, but that won’t be easy based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Duke: ranked 69th in yards before contact
• Ole Miss: ranked fifth in yards before contact allowed
• Duke: ranked 132nd in yards after contact
• Ole Miss: ranked fourth in yards after contact allowed 

First Responder Bowl: North Texas vs. Texas State

• Predicted Winner: Texas State
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

First Responder Bowl Analysis: 

An explosive pass-heavy offense led by former TCU quarterback Chandler Morris helped North Texas squeak into a bowl with a 6-6 record. But Morris and leading receiver DT Sheffield have transferred, leaving the Mean Green without much firepower left on offense. 

Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, North Texas’ pass rate was 9.6% above expected, but it’s hard to imagine them maintaining that rate with true freshman Drew Mestemaker.

Texas State, led by sixth-year quarterback Jordan McCloud, should have no problem moving the ball against a Mean Green defense ranked 123rd in explosive play rate allowed. 

Mayo Bowl: Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech

• Predicted Winner: Minnesota
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Mayo Bowl Analysis: 

This initially looked like a good matchup, but the Hokies will be without just about every meaningful player on the roster. Most notably star running back Bhayshul Tuten has opted out and quarterback Kyron Drones is not expected to play due to injury.

The Hokies are expected to start third-string quarterback Pop Watson, who started against Virginia in the season finale. Virginia Tech won that game, but now Watson will be without Tuten and leading receiver Jaylin Lane. 

Typically run-oriented Minnesota has struggled to move the ball on the ground consistently and has been slightly pass-heavy, with a pass rate 5.5% above expected per Campus2Canton. 

Virginia Tech ranked 20th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate this season, but will be without leading pass-rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland Jr. and Aeneas Peebles. Powell-Ryland and Peebles accounted for 39% of the team’s defensive pressures.

2024 Bowl Game Pick ‘Em Strategy:

In either straight-up bowl pick 'em or confidence pools, the goal is fairly simple. Pick more correct games or score more points than everyone else.

Accomplishing that goal, however, is more involved than simply picking the games, especially in confidence pools.

In regular pick 'em pools, there will be a lot of overlap between entries.

In ESPN's College Bowl Mania, for instance, there will be several teams with well over a 90% pick rate.

While it is not a great idea to deviate from those heavy favorites just for the fun of it, those games can offer a great opportunity to gain leverage on the field if the public is too confident in a certain team.

Often, this overconfidence is a result of the public missing important news, such as opt outs or coaching changes.

Betting markets adjust quickly to that kind of news and are a great way to determine if the public is too confident in a specific team since every moneyline comes with an implied probability of victory.

A -120 favorite (54.6% implied probability) selected by 80% of the field offers a great opportunity to go against the public.

Conversely, a -200 favorite (66.7% implied probability) selected by just 55% of the field is a great opportunity to go with the chalk and pick the favorite.

Identifying those situations is important because it differentiates your entry and increases your chances of winning if you get those swing games correct.

How often you need to make those swings depends on the size of your bowl pool.

In a small pool, it does not make sense to pick a ton of upsets. A few underdog picks should be enough to differentiate from a small number of entries.

A bigger pool, however, might require a bit more risk taking to separate from the larger field.

Confidence pools add another layer to pick 'em strategy because they require entries to rank their selections, with their most confident pick usually worth 47 points and the least confident worth only one point.

The importance of those high confidence games cannot be overstated. The 47-point pick is worth more than picks 1 through 9 combined.

However, those high confidence picks also offer a great opportunity.

Assigning a higher point value to an undervalued team maximizes the advantage gained if that underdog can pull out the win.

Like with regular pick 'em pools, the size of a confidence pool affects how aggressive you should be with upset selections and their point values.

2024 Bowl Game Schedule: