Sharp Football's Rich Hribrar breaks down this Cowboys vs Bucs NFC Wild Card Playoff matchup:
This is where we kicked off Sunday Night Football back in Week 1, with the Buccaneers going into Dallas and winning 19-3.
That feels almost like a different season as Dak Prescott was injured at the end of the game, the Buccaneers actually ran the ball well, and Julio Jones was a major contributor.
The Cowboys were dreadful in the opener and it was their worst game of the season… up until last week.
Both of these teams have taken different paths in making the playoffs.
The Cowboys went 4-1 without Prescott and then caught fire on his return.
Since Prescott’s return in Week 7:
- Dallas leads the NFL in points per drive (2.69),
- touchdown rate per drive (33.6%),
- and third down conversion rate (52.3%).
The Cowboys were so good overall in those areas that last week’s complete no-show in Washington still didn’t take them down a notch.
That said, Dallas does enter this weekend with some questions orbiting them:
- They have lost two of their past four games, which includes last week’s game where they looked as bad as how they opened the season versus the Bucs.
- In Week 18, Dallas had a season-low 182 total yards and scored just six points, their fewest since the season opener.
- This will also be the third straight road game for the Cowboys and their fourth road game since December 18th.
- We also have the creeping narrative now questioning if this team can play outdoors on grass since they have lost road games in Philadelphia, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Washington.
The Cowboys also are entering the postseason bleeding out defensively, especially in the secondary.
- Over the past five weeks to close the season the Cowboys have ranked 16th in points allowed per drive (1.86) after ranking third prior (1.54).
- They have allowed 5.7 yards per play over that span (29th) after allowing 4.8 yards per play prior (fourth).
The question is, can this Buccaneers offense take advantage of Dallas' defense?
There's not much of a comparison when looking at Tampa Bay’s offensive metrics versus the Cowboys.
- Tampa Bay came out of the regular season scoring a touchdown on 16.0% of their possessions, the lowest rate of any team in the NFC.
- Only the Commanders averaged fewer points per drive (1.52) than the Bucs (1.58) in the NFC while only the Rams, Cardinals, and Commanders averaged fewer yards per play than Tampa Bay (5.1) in the NFC.
- The Buccaneers were 21st in the league in third down conversion rate (37.4%).
- And also ranked dead last in conversion rate on third and long situations (needing seven or more yards) at 11.1%.
The Bucs defense and schedule kept them alive while they regularly had to come from behind in the closing minutes to beat teams like the Rams, Saints, and Cardinals.
- Tampa Bay allowed opponents to score on 33.0% of their drives (seventh),
- while forcing a three and out on 39.6% of drives, trailing only the 49ers (39.9%).
» Read the full Cowboys vs Bucs Worksheet breakdown
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Prediction
The Cowboys are predicted to win this NFC Wild Card game with a 59.18% implied probability based on current betting lines. The moneyline model also predicts the Cowboys will win with 64% confidence.
» Bet it Now: Cowboys vs Bucs
Cowboys vs Bucs Odds, Spread, Totals & Moneyline:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Cowboys | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -145 |
| Buccaneers | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +120 |
Cowboys vs Bucs Team Comparison:
| Dallas | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 23.75 | Implied Total | 20.75 | ||
| 27.5 | 4 | Points/Gm | 18.4 | 25 |
| 20.1 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 21.1 | 13 |
| 65.5 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 68.2 | 1 |
| 64.8 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 13 |
| 5.4 | 15 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 25 |
| 5.1 | 7 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 10 |
| 47.67% | 10 | Rush% | 33.30% | 32 |
| 52.33% | 23 | Pass% | 66.70% | 1 |
| 45.14% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 42.68% | 14 |
| 54.86% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 57.32% | 19 |
Cowboys Best Bets Against the Spread
- The Cowboys have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cowboys have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets Against the Spread:
- The Bucs have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Bucs have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Bucs have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Bucs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Bucs have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction & Bet:
Dalton Schultz (TE, Cowboys) is our pick for the 1st TD Scorer bet in this NFC Wild Card Weekend matchup.
Tom Brady (QB, Bucs) is our pick for an anytime TD Scorer bet in this NFC Wild Card Weekend matchup.
» Get Anytime & 1st TD Scorer Bets for every Wild Card game
Cowboys Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys have gone 10-7 (+2.3 Units / 12.37% ROI).
- Cowboys are 12-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 8.5% ROI
- Cowboys are 9-8 when betting the Over for +0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI
- Cowboys are 8-9 when betting the Under for -1.9 Units / ROI
Buccanners Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 4-12 (-9.4 Units / -49.74% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -31.27% ROI
- Buccaneers are 6-11 when betting the Over for -6.1 Units / -32.62% ROI
- Buccaneers are 11-6 when betting the Under for +4.4 Units / 23.53% ROI
Continue reading from BetMGM's Cowboys vs Bucs game breakdown
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