It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group. 

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Why You Should Bet the UNDER on Daniel Jones’s Passing Yards Prop Bet

  • Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is bad at his job
  • Schedule remains among the most difficult in NFL

During his sophomore year in the league, New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones averaged 210.2 yards per game, putting him on pace for 3,574 in a 17-game schedule. 

While the Giants added some talent on offense, it’s still difficult to see Jones significantly out-pacing his past production to go over these numbers:

  • 3800.5 passing yards on DraftKings
  • 3800.5 passing yards on BetMGM
  • Off the board on FanDuel

Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett suppresses offensive numbers with his outdated approach. It’s no coincidence his former quarterback Dak Prescott didn’t throw for over 4,000 yards until Garrett handed the play-calling duties to Kellen Moore in 2019 一 which led to Prescott eclipsing his previous career-high by over 1,000 yards. 

One example of Garrett’s conservative mindset is the rarity with which his quarterbacks throw past the first-down marker. In 2020, Jones threw past the sticks on first and second down on just 32% of his attempts, the sixth-lowest rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. 

If Garrett wasn’t willing to feature a more aggressive passing attack in the absence of running back Saquan Barkley, it’s unlikely he opens up the offense with Barkley back in action. 

Jones’s 2020 numbers may have been slightly suppressed by a tough schedule 一 the third most difficult in terms of pass efficiency defenses faced 一 but the 2021 slate is projected to be the second most treacherous path by the same metric.