- The last No. 1 overall pick at quarterback to win outright in Week 1 was David Carr in 2002.
- Out of 56 QBs with 20+ early down dropbacks in the preseason, Bryce Young was sacked at the 5th highest rate (11%).
Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.
Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.
He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:
- 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
- 23-5 (82%) in 2021
- 28-9 (76%) in 2020
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Betting Preview:
Per Rich Hribar’s research, since 2010, No. 1 Overall draft picks at quarterback are 0-8-1 (1-7-1 ATS) in their first career start and 0-5-1 (1-4-1 ATS) in Week 1.
The last No. 1 overall pick at quarterback to win outright in Week 1 was David Carr in 2002.
Rookie quarterbacks have struggled in season openers.
Out of 25 since 2010, only two threw more than 2 touchdown passes while 13 threw zero or 1 touchdown.
Last year, the Falcons, with a highly limited offense, struggled to win games against pass first teams with good QBs.
To start the season, 5 of their first 9 games were vs. teams that ranked above league average in pass rate.
- Lost 31-27 vs. Matthew Stafford’s Rams
- Lost 21-15 vs. Tom Brady’s Bucs
- Lost 35-17 vs. Joe Burrow’s Bengals
- Lost 20-17 vs. Justin Herbert’s Chargers
- Won 27-23 vs. Geno Smith’s Seahawks
However, in their other 4 games, they played teams that were far more run-heavy and had a ton of success:
- Won 23-20 vs. the Browns
- Won 28-14 vs. the 49ers
- Won 37-34 vs. the Panthers
- Lost 27-26 vs. the Saints*
*Atlanta led 26-10 in the 4th quarter before allowing 17 unanswered points
The Panthers this preseason were 55% pass on early downs with Bryce Young on the field. That ranked a below-average 19th in pass rate.
And that was preseason when many savvy teams choose to reduce the snaps for their starting QB overall but pass at a high rate with them out there.
There really is no need to get live reps being a run-heavy, ball-control offense in the preseason. Get the QB dropbacks vs. a live defense and then get him back on the bench.
So if the Panthers were below average in the preseason with Young, I highly doubt they come out with a pass-first attack vs. the Falcons, a la Brady, Burrow, or Herbert.
This will play into the Falcons' hands and keep them in the game longer if their own offense does have a few hiccups to start the season.
