2 New Futures Bets for the 2023 NFL Season

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2 New Futures Bets for the 2023 NFL Season

Yesterday, I dug into personnel groupings that we've seen teams use so far this preseason.

Why? Coaches are evaluating who should make the roster, and with so many tough cuts to make, they don't want to keep positions they won't use.

I've done all the hard work for you in the article linked above.

I analyzed 2023 preseason usage and compared it to 2022 regular season usage. I also looked back at 2022 preseason usage to see if certain coaches are up to their old tricks in disguising things and found the Shanahan tree including Kyle Shanahan himself, Sean McVay, and Mike McDaniel really aren't to be trusted when it comes to this analysis.

But this is useful for betting on the NFL and in fantasy football. Read more in the first article below.

That gets me to two futures bets I made and released:

Zay Flowers most rookie receiving yards (+800)

Last year, the Ravens used 11 personnel (3 WR sets with 1 RB, 1 TE) at the lowest rate for any offense in a decade (9.8%).

This preseason, they are at 64% usage on first half early downs, and that's without Odell Beckham or Rashod Bateman taking a single snap.

Not only is their increase obviously the largest of any team, but they're passing a ton out of it.

They are passing on 75% of dropbacks in 11 personnel. And that's without Lamar Jackson taking a single snap.

For context, the NFL average last year was 63%. The Ravens at 75% are WAY above that.

Bottom line, we'll see Flowers on the field a TON and the Ravens will likely throw at a high rate from it.

What adds value to this number is that the Ravens are now using the most 11 personnel of any team to draft a first-round WR (Chargers, Vikings, and Seahawks).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is dinged, and his team uses 11 personnel way below average. Quentin Johnston isn't a featured WR in LA. And while Jordan Addison is the deserved favorite here, there's no reason for Flowers to be +800.

I bet it and gave it to everyone with a Futures subscription.

We moved the line down to +300. I don't advise it any longer, but wanted to share my rationale and how these personnel groupings are beneficial. As is going overdrive to study data like I do every single day of the week. Also to show you the value we get in the market.

Jahan Dotson receptions over 50.5 (-110)

This line is STILL AVAILABLE at the time of my writing at DraftKings.

Last year, Washington's usage of 11 was right around average at 57%. But just LOOK at the way this team played.

In the first half of games, Washington ranked #32 in pass rate (44.3%). They also executed the NFL's SLOWEST pace of play.

Meanwhile, in comes Eric Bieniemy from Kansas City.

The Chiefs ranked #1 in pass rate at 68.4% AND was #3 in pace of play.

And so far this season, Washington is up to 78% 11 personnel!

That's 20 percentage points higher, one of the largest increases year-over-year this preseason.

What does this mean? It means while we won't see KC results nor mirroring exact rates, we're going to see Washington with MORE WRs on the field, PASSING MORE often and going MUCH FASTER than we saw in 2022.

Over his final 5 games as a rookie last year, Jahan Dotson averaged 4.2 receptions per game despite the slow, run-first offense.

Even at 4.0 receptions per game, Dotson would only need to play 13 games to hit this mark (missing 4 games). But he'll likely average more targets and more receptions this year. AND, Terry McLaurin was just dinged with a very vague response from a coach who often underplays injury news.

I JUST RELEASED this one to clients with the Futures package and it still has value. We're up to around 30 NFL Futures and soon will have Week 1 bets. I couldn't be more excited!

So there you go, two futures derived in part from personnel grouping data and preseason game analysis. Good luck!

Use code FUTURES80 to save $80 on the Futures package today!

NFL Personnel Groupings: How Will Teams Line Up in 2023?

The primary goal of preseason games is to evaluate the roster, odds are the coach is looking to watch what guys on their roster could do for them in the season. Try as they might to disguise their objectives, play-callers might have to tell on themselves with personnel groupings in the preseason
Through two preseason games, Buffalo has used 12 personnel at a 35% rate on early downs in the first half. That is over 29 percentage points higher than the 5.6% rate they used in 2022
On 90.9% of early downs in the first half, the Panthers have been in 11 personnel. That’s well above the NFL average of 60.8%

» Continue reading NFL Personnel Groupings

Best Receiver Player Prop Bets (Overs) for 2023

Aaron Rodgers loves peppering his favorite receiver with targets. In his final season with Davante Adams in 2021, Adams had a 35% target share when he was on the field
Even last year, once Christian Watson had his breakout game in Week 10, he commanded a 30% target share when on the field over the final eight games
Garrett Wilson started to earn that trust from Jets quarterbacks last year — he had a 28.7% target share when on the field — but ineffective play and constant turnover (three different starting quarterbacks) likely suppressed his overall numbers

» Continue reading Best Receiver Overs

If you're not ahead you're behind in prep for the season!

Thanks to our partners at Underdog Fantasy, you can now get either the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit or the 2023 Preview Book for just $1!

All you need to do is click the package you want and follow the steps we have laid out for you:

Fantasy Strategy: ADP Moves to Buy and Fade

Last year, we saw the Lions take a huge step forward due to a top offensive line. The Falcons have the type of line that could give great results. Just like the Lions, a perceived weak quarterback has kept most of the pieces on this offense cheap
Jaylen Waddle has fallen a few picks. That might not seem like much, but he has dropped into a very flat tier that exists at the end of Round 2 and continues through the middle third round. Due to concussion concerns, Tua Tagovalloa remains cheap, and that combo could win you a million dollars
Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews are not cheap, but they are priced very fair. You can get them in the aforementioned second to third round dead zone

» Continue reading ADP Moves to Buy and Fade

What We Can Learn: Wide Receiver Fantasy Football ADP for 2023

In the past two years, the only receiver selected as a WR1 that outright flopped and averaged single-digit points was Allen Robinson in 2021
There have been 48 seasons here in which a wide receiver posted over 300 PPR points. 35 of those came from wideouts with a WR1 ADP while just five have come from wideouts with ADP outside of the top 24
Over the past two years, we have been particularly sharp at setting the top of the market at wide receiver, where the crux of elite scoring seasons come from at the position

» Continue reading What We Can Learn from WR ADP