There are eight teams battling for three playoff spots in the AFC. The AFC South is up for grabs as well as both wild card spots. Currently, Indianapolis holds the top spot in the AFC South with Buffalo sitting atop the wild card standings. Houston and Oakland are tied for the second wild card spot but Houston currently holds the advantage with their head to head victory over Oakland in Week 8.
As of today, Indianapolis holds the AFC South tiebreaker over Houston with their head to head victory in Week 7. If Houston beats Indianapolis Thursday night, the Texans would then take over the AFC South lead and the Colts would be in the outside looking in since they lost to the Raiders in week 4. Full playoff tie-breaker rules are listed below.
NFL Playoff Tiebreakers in Order:
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best W/L and tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best W/L and tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
I took every team’s future schedules and applied point spreads to each game, that I have projected, and with that came out with an implied win probability. Add those all up and round up to the nearest win and the results are below.
It should be noted Jacksonville and Tennessee have the lowest win projections, both finishing 7-9. Based on the projections, I have Houston winning the AFC South with a 9-7 record and after accounting for a head to head split with the Colts, the next tiebreaker would come down to conference win percentage. Houston is projected to win 8 games in the AFC with the Colts two behind with 6. The Colts losing to AFC teams when they were favorites like the Raiders, and especially the Dolphins, could really come back to bite them in a tie-breaker scenario.
After assuming the Texans win the AFC South, the next two wild card spots would come down to Indianapolis, Buffalo, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and the Browns. I have Buffalo, Oakland, and the Colts finishing 9-7 with Pittsburgh and Cleveland finishing 8-8. The wild card spots would go to Buffalo and Oakland since the Raiders beat Indianapolis and both the Bills and Raiders would have one more AFC conference victory.
Most every time on the list has some sort of path that is conceivable to a playoff spot as well as the ability to lose games they should win. As you can see by the table, while it’s not likely, the Browns are the one team that could sneak up out of nowhere and grab the final wild card spot. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders and according to my projected spreads, currently are projected to have the highest future win total of 3.8 wins.
The Browns would also be in position to win tiebreakers against multiple teams if it gets down to that. For example, due to the projected win percentage against AFC teams, the Browns would win a tiebreaker over the Colts. Cleveland would also hold a head to head tiebreaker over Buffalo with the Week 10 victory. A tiebreaker with the Steelers could come down to strength of victory, in which the Browns’ victory over the Ravens might end up making the difference.
Assuming a loss to the Ravens, the biggest swing games for the Browns look to be against Arizona and at Pittsburgh. A win in Pittsburgh not only keeps the Browns’ slim hopes alive but could also potentially eliminate the Steelers. The Cardinals game should be a toss up and if the Browns are able to win that one, could be the tail end of a 6-game win streak.
The Bills have the most difficult future schedule of the group and should be thrilled to already have 7 wins under their belts or they could be on the outside looking in. Buffalo has had the easiest schedule in the NFL so far and the combined record of the opponents that they have beaten is 15-55. They have not beaten a single team above .500 and even a game this Sunday against Denver is not an easy victory.
Buffalo is a team that relies on its defense and a strong running game but will have to face five teams in their final six games who rank in the top 11 in DVOA defense. And the opponent s not in the top 11 is the Cowboys, who the Bills have to face in Dallas on Thanksgiving. It is not inconceivable they can lose all six of their remaining games.
