Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.
Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.
He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:
- 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
- 23-5 (82%) in 2021
- 28-9 (76%) in 2020
Warren is 44-20 (69%) on sides and totals over the last seven weeks and 48-16 (75%) on elevated plays.
A $100 bettor would be up $7,716 based on Warren's recommendations for the 2023 NFL season.
Bears vs. Lions Week 14 Betting Preview & Recommendation
110 Chicago Bears +3.5 (0.75 units)
When it comes to defenses they’ve faced this year, the Chicago Bears seem to either play haves or have-nots.
They’ve played 4 games against top-10 defenses this year:
- 10 points scored vs. KC Week 3
- 13 points scored vs. MIN Week 6
- 17 points scored vs. NO Week 9
- 12 points scored vs. MIN Week 12
But against below-average defenses, since Week 3 the Bears have put up (with Justin Fields):
- 28 points scored vs. DEN Week 4
- 40 points scored vs. WAS Week 5
- 26 points scored vs. DET Week 11
Over the last two years, Fields starts have gone 15-8 (65%) to the over, which is the #3 highest rate of any QB in the NFL.
The Bears offense was in a bad place the first three weeks of the season but made considerable changes since that point and have produced well in Fields starts, save for games vs. the Vikings.
Jared Goff has struggled in the outdoors and cold.
The main differences are his completion rate and target depth.
- The last 3 years at home: 6.8 air yards per attempt and 69% completions
- Last 3 years outside in 40 degrees or lower: 6.1 air yards per attempt and 63% completions
When you throw shorter, it should result in a higher completion rate, but that has not been the case for Goff.
He’s also throwing TDs on the road at a 2.6% rate vs. 5.9% at home.
And he’s quicker to take sacks despite being pressured less frequently when on the road.
