It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
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Why You Should Bet the OVER on Mike Davis’s Rushing Yards Prop Bet
- No competition for carries in Falcons backfield
- Proven production behind poor offensive line play
Expectations are low for the Atlanta Falcons this season, so running back Mike Davis likely won’t have a ton of favorable game scripts. However, he’ll only need to average 45.6 yards per game over a 17-game season to hit the over on the lowest of these modest prop bets:
- 775.5 rushing yards on BetMGM
- 800.5 rushing yards on FanDuel
- 800.5 rushing yards on DraftKings
The obvious reason to bet on Davis is the lack of competition in the Falcons backfield. Qadree Ollison (23 career carries through two seasons) is his current backup, so there appears to be no viable threat to Davis’ job.
Low expectations for Atlanta’s offensive line might factor into these prop numbers for Davis, however, we’ve already seen Davis perform well behind mediocre line play.
In 2020, with the Carolina Panthers, Davis averaged 2.0 yards per attempt when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage 一 third-best in the league behind Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb, per Sports Info Solutions.
Additionally, when Davis saw some extended action in 2018 with the Seahawks, he also averaged 2.0 yards per attempt when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Knowing Davis is the type of runner who’s tough to bring down and can create for himself behind poor offensive line play, we should remain optimistic about his performance in Atlanta despite playing in less-than-ideal conditions.