It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
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Why You Should Bet the OVER on Najee Harris’s Rushing Yards Prop Bet
- Expected to dominate workload
- Steelers have renewed commitment to the run game
As Ben Roethlisberger’s career winds down, the Pittsburgh Steelers appear to be shifting the focus of the offense back to the run game. The first four picks of their 2021 NFL Draft went as follows: running back, tight end, offensive tackle, center.
Clearly, Pittsburgh prioritized rebuilding the run game through the draft, and with rookie running back Najee Harris expected to carry the load, he’s a good bet to eclipse these modest numbers:
- 975.5 rushing yards on BetMGM
- 990.5 rushing yards on DraftKings
- 1000.5 rushing yards on FanDuel
These numbers are low for a starting running back without a challenger to his job, likely due to expectations of Pittsburgh fielding one of the league’s worst offensive line 一 they ranked 32nd in our unit rankings.
A poor offensive line doesn’t bode well for an efficient run game, but Harris should make up for it with volume.
Harris’s only competition for touches appears to be Anthony McFarland Jr., who may be better suited to get his touches in the passing game. Through two preseason games, Harris has played 30 snaps with the starters compared to just five for McFarland.
In 2020, James Conner averaged 4.3 yards per carry behind that shaky offensive line. If Harris can match that rate, he would need to average only 13.3 carries per game in a 17-game season to reach 976 yards and hit the over at BetMGM.