Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Bears Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Bears are predicted to win 7.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Bears Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Bears have the sixth-easiest schedule of opponents, the third-largest improvement after facing the fifth-most difficult schedule last year.
In addition, the Bears are tied with the highest net rest edge and are the only team that does not play a single game with less rest than their opponents.
Two of the three games with a rest advantage come against the division-rival Lions in the back half of the season.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Despite giving up 58 sacks, the fourth-highest mark in the league, the offensive line finished in the top five of both pass block and run block win rates according to ESPN’s rankings.
The line upgraded this offseason with free agent addition Nate Davis and first-round pick Darnell Wright.
Improved line play combined with Justin Fields entering his third season should improve on the 13.7% sack rate, which was nearly double the league average and more than 3% higher than any team.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The Bears finished with a league-worst .125 winning percentage in one-score games with a 1-7 record in 2022.
The Bears finished as the league's second-most underachieving team in Pythagorean wins, finishing 2.09 wins under expectation.
» Bet the Bears Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Bears Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Bears earned the first-overall pick despite finishing with extremely fortunate field goal and fumble luck.
Opponents missed 3.3 field goals over expectation while the Bears made 2.3 field goals over expectation, finishing third in net field goals over expectation.
The Bears also finished with 3.0 fumbles recovered over expectation, which was the sixth-highest.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The defense was abysmal in 2022 as the Bears allowed a league-high 463 points.
The defense allowed 0.12 EPA/play and a 48.3% success rate, both the worst in the league.
Big-name free agent additions Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards will improve the defense, but the defensive line and secondary lack talent and depth.
The Bears created a league-low 24.2% pressure rate and did not upgrade significantly on the defensive line.
The league's worst defense in 2022 will improve but remains a concern.
» Bet the Bears Win Total Under
Chicago Bears Strength of Schedule:
The Bears are ranked #6 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the sixth-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
