Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Bengals Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Bengals are predicted to win 11.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Bengals Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
Not only do the Bengals have an elite quarterback on a rookie deal, they also have two elite wide receivers on rookie deals.
The combination of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins combine for less than $25 million dollars in terms of salary cap allocation. This provides the Bengals leverage to build what should be a contending team every year until the contracts are due.
Fortunately, the Bengals have made a Super Bowl and lost in the AFC Championship in both seasons with the trio.
The Bengals have a very solid roster, financial flexibility, and cap room if the right player is made available via trade and they decide to go all in for a championship.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Bengals are projected to have a slightly more difficult than average strength of schedule, but there are some very favorable opponents mixed in.
The Bengals play the AFC South, which has three teams in the bottom five of Super Bowl odds, and they have a matchup against the Cardinals, another bottom-five team in terms of Super Bowl odds.
» Bet the Bengals Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Bengals Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
After the Bengals lost the Super Bowl, improving the offensive line was a focus in 2022, and Joe Burrow’s sack rate decreased to 6.3% from 8.9%.
However, this is misleading. Burrow was sacked 13 times by the Steelers and Cowboys, and the line was still an issue.
From Week 3 onward, Burrow’s sack rate decreased to 5.1%, but during this time he averaged 6.89 air yards per attempt and 2.39 seconds per throw. Burrow decreased his average air yards per attempt by 1.33 yards while decreasing his average time to throw by 0.17 seconds.
The offensive line finished 30th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate despite impeccable injury luck, using only six starters all season.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Bengals were fortunate in terms of injuries, finishing the year with the 10th-lowest adjusted games lost. The Bengals had a +11 turnover differential in the final 16 games after starting the season with five turnovers against the Steelers. Regression in both turnovers and injuries is possible in 2023.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Although the Bengals only have a -1 net rest advantage, they do have five matchups with a rest disadvantage.
Also working against the Bengals is a critical divisional matchup against the Ravens, which is a short-week road game.
» Bet the Bengals Win Total Under
Cincinnati Bengals Strength of Schedule:
The Bengals are ranked #20 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 13th-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.