Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.
The best and worst part of the NFL is upon us. We are into the final four, which should provide great football, but that also means the end is near.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread Prediction:
Look for the Ravens to cover as 4-point home favorites against the Chiefs and the game total to go under 45.
» Bet the Ravens -4 and under 45 now!
Why I like the Ravens to cover against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game:
The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes will play in their sixth straight AFC Championship Game. The Ravens have not made it this far with Lamar Jackson but are looking as good all around as they ever have.
This is a great matchup in most ways for the Ravens in my opinion. I like what it looks like on both sides of the ball overall.
Sure, you can’t be as talented as the Chiefs offense and have a very good defense and be just overwhelmed. But the Ravens team in DVOA grades out as one of the best of all time.
First, the Ravens are the best pass defense in the league versus passes over 16 yards. That stops the big play and will make Kansas City have to march it down without giving up a drive-killing sack, penalty, or drop along the way.
So let’s say they have to throw it to Travis Kelce. Last week, Kelce was guarded a lot by A.J. Klein (I know, I know). This week it will be Kyle Hamilton or Roquan Smith doing the honors, which severely changes things for Mahomes security blanket.
The Ravens also led the league in sacks, and having to look at Kelce when covered and then someone else will only aid in that process.
To add to the problems, Chiefs guard Joe Thuney was ruled out of the game. That causes two more problems. The obvious one is it hurts pass protection. The second part is that Isiah Pacheco’s most efficient runs are between the tackles. Without Thuney that might be tough to continue.
And since Pacheco has accounted for over 40% of the team's touches in the playoffs, they need to make yards when they do give it to them.
The Ravens defense gets to play base more than almost every team, and the Chiefs have not been good at that. The Ravens are the best team in the league when playing 1-high safety in cover-3 or cover-1 (man with safety free in the middle). They are in the top 10 in both cover-2 and cover-4 and first in all zone defense.
They do play some nickel. The Chiefs get better at that, so I expect the Ravens to know and play base on the runs and if they are not sure, stay with base on second down as well, and make everything difficult for the Chiefs.
On offense, Lamar Jackson should be able to run the ball on a Chiefs defense that allowed Josh Allen to run for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. This happened on some designed runs and some scrambles. The Chiefs defensive line ran up the field on pass plays and opened up easy lanes for Allen to take and make good yards. Jackson will make them pay even more.
The biggest advantage for the Ravens on offense is running the ball where they were No. 1 in overall run offense and No. 6 up the middle. The Chiefs are No. 27 on all runs and No. 22 up the middle.
The Chiefs have allowed teams that we don’t normally think of beating them to do so because of a bad run defense. Think about it, the Lions, Raiders, and Broncos all beat them IN KANSAS CITY. That started with these runs.
And if the Ravens can establish the run, play action comes. This is really where the Ravens could hurt them.
Kansas City goes from a top-five defense against the pass to a bottom-five defense versus play action on early downs. Todd Monken has shown an ability to adapt in games versus defensive adjustments. I think he can find a solution EVEN IF the Chiefs find a way to stop some of the middle runs and/or play action passes.
I would love to see some play action digs to Zay Flowers with catch and run afterward, where the Ravens were again the best offense in the NFL on YAC.
And that is not even thinking about the return of TE Mark Andrews. With him and the emergence of Isaiah Likely, they may have a package that Kansas City has not seen, nor has a chance to prepare for. I look for this on the goal line some. Mix in that play action near the goal line, and it’s going to be easy for me to see more touchdowns than field goals when they get into the red zone.
But run, run, run, and good defense against the pass by both teams overall also leads to the clock running more and more. I don’t see nearly as good a path to this game going over as I see going under. I think if this game was played 10 times in the AFC Championship scenario, it would go under seven times.
I think the Ravens win by double digits in a 24-13 type of game.
I will take the Ravens -4 and under 45.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions Spread Prediction:
Look for the Lions to cover as 7.5-point road underdogs against the 49ers.
Why I like the Lions to cover against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game:
Jared Goff is back in his home state with the super fun Detroit Lions. Brock Purdy is trying to prove in this game that it is not just the offense, talent, and play calling, but his talent that is going to take the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl.
The real game will be played between these two offensive and defensive lines. The Lions come in with the No. 1 run defense and the 49ers come in with the No. 2 overall defense. The big thing that will affect this game is how they do that.
Remember a few weeks ago when I wrote that the Ravens would probably beat the 49ers because the 49ers were No. 1 against dime defenses and No. 23 against all others at that time? The Ravens ran dime personnel less than anyone in the league, and it showed that night. Purdy threw four interceptions and the defense rerouted receivers all night.
Last week, I noticed that the Packers ran dime in the bottom six in the league, and that simply fits what San Francisco is least good at on offense. It showed up time and time again.
I also pointed out that the outside zone is a problem for San Francisco as they averaged over 5 YPC against and ranked No. 31 in the NFL against it.
Well, guess who runs it pretty well? The Lions like to give it to Jahmyr Gibbs, on that play and he is even better than Aaron Jones on it. Jones broke multiple double-digit runs, and Gibbs will take those and make them touchdowns.
That will set up their play action. Because Green Bay ran all over that defense, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, those two outstanding linebackers, will have to really pursue and come hard towards the line of scrimmage, opening themselves up for play action passes over the middle where Amon-Ra St. Brown and Goff LOVE to throw the ball.
I called for a Green Bay win last week. A missed field goal and a dumb throw cost me the moneyline win, but the cover was easy.
I love the fact that Dan Campbell will have these Lions focused on making history and playing crazy tough. I love that what they do matches up very well with San Francisco. This game should be a close one.
I’ll take the Lions +7.5 over the 49ers.
Bonus NFL Best Bet for the AFC & NFC Championship Games
- Jahmyr Gibbs over 48.5 rushing yards
- Patrick Mahomes under 248.5 passing yards
- Mark Andrews to score anytime TD +250
- Isiah Likely to score anytime TD +350 (one of the Ravens TEs and maybe both)
- Touchdown Same Game Parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs & Christian McCaffrey anytime TDs. (+200)
Throw some Chick-fil-A money on them!
