Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Spread Prediction:
Look for the Packers to cover as 9.5-point road underdogs against the 49ers and the game total to go over 50.5.
» Bet the Packers +9.5 and over 50.5 now!
Why I like the Packers to cover against the 49ers in the Divisional Round:
Everyone is waiting on Sunday for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to march into Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills. For sure I am also looking forward to that, but the game of the week in my opinion will be Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers, off a trouncing and what should have been Mike McCarthy’s last game as coach of the Dallas Cowboys, taking on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers.
Why would I even mention those quarterbacks and the Bills vs. Chiefs game in an article that I am writing about Love, Purdy, and the Packers playing in San Francisco? I looked at that one so hard wanting to write and pick a side. That is not it though.
It’s because for the present time, and over the last six weeks of the NFL season, Love has simply been the best quarterback in football in many ways.
Love has surpassed Purdy's production in completion percentage (70.7% to 70.1%) and TD-to-INT ratio (21-1 to 16-6). I will point out that Purdy has about 8.5 more yards per game passing in those games though. That does NOT include what Love did to the Cowboys, one of the best defenses in the NFL, last week.
This is a quarterback-centered league. Converting third downs and fourth downs are musts to keep advancing. Love has 17 TD passes this year on third and fourth downs.
As a coach, I must say that I have watched Love at the beginning of the year wondering why the Packers invested so much into him. Early in the season, he was throwing tons of short passes, the offense wasn’t moving, and Green Bay was 2-5.
But then, head coach Matt LaFleur had an epiphany of unknown causes. He completely changed the types of plays he was calling and when. He began calling more play-action and downfield passing. And Love started hitting them.
This opened up the run game, and they went through a period where Aaron Jones was out and it made them vulnerable in that area. Well, now he is back and has 100 yards in his last 4 games. That threat of running and turning it into play action has even the best linebackers coming downhill and then unable to get back and cover underneath.
There are so many reasons I think the Packers have a chance for a straight-up win this week. A lot of those are mentioned above. I was researching for this article and I ran across a few more that our leader at Sharp Football Analysis, Warren Sharp, gave out on Sports Grid.
Here is a good one. San Francisco’s defense hates the outside zone play. They are No. 31 in the NFL in YPC against it. 43% of Green Bay’s running plays are outside zone, and they average over 5 YPC with Aaron Jones running it. That is a way to keep the ball moving and open up play action, and it is a necessity against the best linebacker in the game in my opinion, Fred Warner.
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What about that pass rush of the 49ers? Love is mobile, and he can throw the ball from body positions much like Aaron Rodgers and Mahomes. His mobility will save him some, and their route combos will help as well. I believe the Packers will be able to move the ball and score.
And I think the 49ers will get their fair share as well.
Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle make it hard not to do so. But they won’t get quite as much as usual because of the following.
The 49ers FEAST on dime defenses.
Against the rest of the defensive personnel they face, they are in the bottom 10 in the league. The Ravens play it 1% of the time, and we all are very aware of what happened there. Now the Ravens could pressure as well, which helped Purdy into 4 interceptions.
The Packers are not nearly as good, but the defense is still there. The Packers play dime 5% of the time, one of the lowest in the league. That is exactly what I would do against the 49ers. I would play little to no dime personnel. So they don’t have to change much, just do what they do and sometimes things just match up to what you need in certain games.
The example to watch is the 49ers against the Cowboys. Dallas plays dime at a whopping 68% rate. The 49ers ripped the Cowboys to pieces running for 170 yards, and Purdy threw 4 TD passes as well. WRONG DEFENSE TO PLAY, and the Packers rarely do it.
But, I do think the Packers are going to have one turnover that leads to an easy score for the 49ers. But I think the 49ers reciprocate with that as well.
I love the fact that the Packers don’t seem to care who they throw it to on routes. Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson. It doesn’t matter. The guys run the plays, and Love throws it to the open guy. That’s not always the case. Ask Mahomes about it.
This will put San Francisco in a more predictable set and leverage in my opinion. That will clear up the presnap for Love and make his ability to diagnose the defense and LaFleur's ability to call plays effectively easier than normal.
For all those reasons, I love two plays in this game. Barring both teams going into a conservative play-calling shell as McCarthy did last week, they should both score more than 24 points. Both likely hit 27 and this game hits 60.
Also, it is my upset pick of the weekend. It is hard to make myself pick against a dominant team like the 49ers, but I think it very well could happen Saturday evening.
I will take the Packers +9.5 and the OVER 50.5
Bonus NFL Best Bet for the Divisional Round:
My next favorite pick on a tough board is the Ravens -9.5 over the Texans.
I love C.J. Stroud, but this defense of the Ravens will cause him some trouble, and I think this is the year of Lamar Jackson.
Throw some Chick-fil-A money on them!