The bittersweet time of year is upon us. Of course, it’s the biggest game, but also the last game which makes it have a bittersweet feeling.
As usual, this should be another awesome Super Bowl matchup with consistent postseason names like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and the Kansas City Chiefs taking on Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa, and the San Francisco 49ers.
As you read, remember some of the points made about the game because they will also lead to a prop bet or two that I will point out at the end.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 58 Spread Prediction:
Look for the 49ers to cover as 2-point favorites against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58.
Why I like the 49ers to cover against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58:
Let’s start with the Chiefs on offense vs. that San Francisco Defense. Let’s also be really honest during this article.
The Chiefs offense is not what they have been for the past few years, and at the same time, that 49ers defense has not played well at the end of the year. One of those two things could shine more than the other in the Super Bowl.
We all know that the Chiefs lead the NFL in drops this season, and as the playoffs began, you see Mahomes trying to get the ball more to the guys who do catch the ball, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and even Isiah Pacheco.
That is good and bad. As a coach, you want your quarterback to go through his normal read or progressions and throw to the open guy that was designed to get it on that play.
It appears to me as Mahomes has played later in this season, he has skipped over some open guys to get to the three mentioned above. Or sometimes, he stays on Rice and Kelce so long that he takes a sack or gets pressured, scrambles, or throws it away.
Another point to remember that I believe helps is that Andy Reid seems to always rely on the rushing game more and more as the season goes on. This season is no different.
So let’s get to the first important factor involving this. Isiah Pacheco has been pretty good in the playoffs. While he is averaging almost 85 yards per game running the ball, he is only averaging 4.03 YPC.
The thing everyone is looking at is that the 49ers are not good against the run overall. In some categories for run defense, they are ranked as low as No. 29 in the NFL.
What many don’t know, but that I have pointed out the last two weeks and the main reason I have picked against the 49ers against the spread the last two weeks is, they are No. 31 versus the outside zone.
That is what Green Bay and Detroit excel at and it showed in the playoff games. That set up play action and led to some big plays for both as well.
There is a big BUT involved, and that is the 49ers are No. 6 in runs between the tackles. Kansas City does not run much outside zone, and their best runs are between the tackles.
That yards per carry stat I mentioned earlier for the Chiefs is alarming because they averaged only 3.3 YPC overall against Miami and 2.9 YPC against the Ravens. And the Ravens are in the bottom third of the league on defense against runs between the tackles.
The easy thing is to say that well the Chiefs will just run heavy on outside zone. It doesn’t work that way in the football world. You can’t just put something like that in or drastically improve on it because it is such a different scheme for the offensive linemen.
This led to problems for the Chiefs all season on first downs. They finished No. 17 in the NFL on first down. The good news for San Francisco is that they finished No. 7 on defense on first down.
Even though Mahomes has looked better at times in the playoffs, the Chiefs have not gotten better on first downs, standing at No. 7 of the 14 playoff teams.
It’s going to be crucial for them to be better on first down this week so Bosa and Chase Young cannot get after Mahomes on second down with the best linebacker combo in the league behind them in Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner. These two certainly help on the run but are the best against the pass as linebackers all things considered.
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The thing to focus on when the 49ers have the football is the ability to run the ball, and their decision to continue running the ball when stopped early will help them if they get off to a slow start in the run game.
Baltimore did NOT do that, and to me it made them lose the game.
The Chiefs defense is No. 27 against the run between the tackles. The 49ers excel at running the ball between the tackles. Baltimore ran Gus Edwards three times. He made a first down on all three runs. They were not down in the game by more than a score and had no reason not to run the ball, but for whatever reason, they did not.
San Francisco was averaging 2.3 YPC in the first half against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game. In the second half, they continued to run and although that is not always a smart thing, it turned out to be and helps me realize here that they will continue to do so, attacking the Chiefs’ weakness and keeping the ball out of Mahomes’ hands.
On top of the ability to run the ball with McCaffrey, the sheer number of weapons they have on offense is something that I think will give the Chiefs problems.
The Chiefs love to blitz, and George Kittle is the top target when that happens to the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan will have ways to get the ball to maybe the best run after catch and contact player in the league in Deebo Samuel. Brandon Aiyuk showed what he could do all season and then really emphasized that against Detroit with a 100-plus yard game.
Trent Williams is a player that I haven’t mentioned yet, and they will run behind him in every crucial moment. He is on his way to being possibly the best offensive lineman that has ever played the game. He is yet another superstar on this offense.
Brock Purdy even showed us that he can take the team on his back, leading them from behind in both playoff games and using his legs as well.
Another thing concerning if you are a Chiefs fan is that they have been held to 21 or fewer points in 8 of their last 12 games. I know the Chiefs defense is way better than it has been in the past, but the 49ers will be the best and most consistent offense they have played.
They are going against the second-best play caller in the NFL. 21 points is NOT going to do it against San Francisco.
Best Bets for Super Bowl 58
- I am playing San Francisco -2 as one of my favorite plays of the year. I am seeing anywhere from -1 to -2 at different books.
- I am playing Isiah Pacheco UNDER 67.5 yards rushing.
- I am playing Deebo Samuel OVER 4.5 receptions.
Bonus NFL Best Bet for Super Bowl 58
- Christian McCaffrey Over 89.5 rushing yards.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 6.5 rushing yards.
Throw some Chick-fil-A money on them!