Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.
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Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns Spread Prediction:
Look for the Denver Broncos to cover the spread as 1-point home favorites against the Cleveland Browns.
Why I like the Broncos to cover the spread vs. the Browns in Week 12:
Cleveland Browns and their current No. 1 ranked defense in DVOA travel to Denver to face an underrated Russell Wilson and a defense that is ever-improving since that annihilation that the Miami Dolphins gave them a while back.
This to me is one of the most interesting games of the week.
When I first started looking at games, I like to start with the offensive and defensive lines. So much is won and lost right then, right there.
And at first, I was going to pass on this game because of some of the discrepancies, but then I started to look at the matchups. The big one that stood out was that the Browns are No. 3 in Run Block Win Rate. Denver is dead last on defense in Run Stop Win Rate.
Then I thought of the Miami game and how much that dropped Denver in the rankings. I also thought of Nick Chubb‘s being out for the year and, even with that great blocking, the Browns are only No.14 in YPC.
It doesn’t matter how well you block if you aren’t going to do too much with it.
It was then I remembered what kind of league the NFL really is. It’s a QB-centered league. I rave about it all the time. And Cleveland, with the loss of Deshaun Watson for the year, is trotting Dorian Thompson-Robinson out in Mile High Stadium.
I know the Browns won the game last week against Pittsburgh, but I think that eventually, being outgained every single week, the Steelers were going to lose.
Thompson-Robinson was 24 of 43 for 165 yards with an interception and a sack. That is a whopping 3.8 YPA.
It is extremely hard to win like that. The main reason why, besides the fact that you have to run too many plays to go down the field without eventually getting a drive-stopping penalty or incompletion, etc., is that the linebackers, who have to play run against the Browns, figure out quickly that they don’t have to drop too far because the Browns aren’t running any routes behind them where they have to drop.
That makes them far more efficient against the pass and the run. Now seeing as the Browns won, I doubt they change that plan.
When Denver has the ball, Wilson is getting better and better each week. As is Sean Payton with the play calling. He still needs to improve a ton for this team to do a lot, but he is slowly making gains.
I wish Payton would get Jerry Jeudy more involved, especially in the middle of the field as he is one of their fastest guys. Just taking the occasional shot deep so the corners had to play off would certainly help their underneath stuff. But they did target him more than they have all year last week against the Vikings, so that will help.
Wilson is ranked No. 5 right now in accuracy for active QBs.
The bottom line is that this comes down to a few things.
The first is Wilson versus Thompson-Robinson and Wilson is playing at home. The Broncos played a much better version of this type of quarterback in Josh Dobbs last week and they beat him.
The second is I think the Broncos have all the momentum and confidence right now. The Browns know they have a great defense, but deep down there is no way they think they can make a run in the playoffs with either one of their backup QBs as the guy.
The Broncos have won 4 straight and those wins include a Packers team that looked very good on Thanksgiving, the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs, and a Vikings team that was on a five game win streak. That will give you confidence.
I’ll take the team with one of the best defenses in the league over the past seven weeks and the better QB.
Denver – 1 is the play for me.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Spread Prediction:
Look for the Minnesota Vikings to cover the spread as 3-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears.
Why I like the Vikings to cover the spread vs. the Bears in Week 12:
The Chicago Bears have Justin Fields back! The Minnesota Vikings do not have Kirk Cousins!
Those things are supposed to excite bettors in this game and they probably do to some. But if you take a closer look, you will quickly remember that the Bears are 1-5 straight up.
Let’s compare the QB situation since, as we talked about in the blurb above, the QB, as we all know, is huge.
I love that Fields came back last week against the Lions and ALMOST beat them. With four minutes left, the Bears had a 12-point lead.
Looking at what Fields did last week, he hurt them with his legs. He rushed for 104 yards and had an explosive run in there that really helped a drive. But he only threw for 169 yards, and the Bears won the turnover battle 4-0 AND STILL LOST.
Teams have less than a 10% chance of losing in that situation, but the Bears still did with Jared Goff basically giving away four possessions in that one.
Looking at the Lions on Thanksgiving against the Packers makes you think they caught the Lions at the right time to beat them and still could not do so.
Now they travel to a team coming off a loss that is still in the playoff hunt, that believes in their newly found QB and may be getting the best receiver in the league back in Justin Jefferson.
With Dobbs not knowing the playbook and missing their best player, the Vikings have still outscored the Bears with Fields.
Minnesota, even with a bad start, still ranks No. 13 in Team DVOA vs. the Bears No. 26.
What really, really gives the Vikings the advantage is the fact that Justin Fields has trouble recognizing what defenses are trying to do to him. And there honestly couldn’t be a much worse presnap look than he could get than what Brian Flores and Minnesota will give him.
They line up six across the front all the time and play differently on the back end than anyone in football. It has given people like Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Russell Wilson problems.
Fields is going to think he is on another planet. And when he panics, he throws the ball up for grabs, and not in a good way.
The Vikings have been one of the best in the league in the past five weeks at getting those turnovers. The Vikings have lost five games this year by a total of 21 points. Every single one was a one-score game, so they are always in it.
And they have played some very difficult QBs that have taken the game away late. Fields can’t do that. The Bears have lost eight games by 98 points. Four of them were NOT one-score games, and they had no chance to win them at the end. That’s largely because they simply are not a good team.
To win this game, the Bears need to run the ball, and the Vikings are tied for No. 3 in the league in defensive YPC. The Bears won’t be able to beat them passing the ball, and Dobbs is almost just as good at Fields as buying time and way better at keeping his eyes down the field and making plays like you have to in this league to win.
Vikings -3 over the Bears