Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.
Don't miss out on the biggest value we have! Leveraging Warren Sharp's 17-year track record of winning NFL recommendations, our all-access package includes NFL betting, College Football betting, Player Props, and our in-season Fantasy Football products. This package also includes Warren's NFL computer totals, which have gone 60-20 (75%) over the last two years and are 62.3% accurate lifetime. Weekly and monthly packages are also available! Click here to learn more!
Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders Spread Prediction:
Look for the Rams and Commanders to go over 50.5 points.
Why I like the Rams and Commanders to go over in Week 15:
I haven’t been playing a lot of over/unders simply because it doesn’t make a lot of sense to play overs with unders hitting at such a high rate this season. But no one loves rooting for unders, a slow game, limited ball movement. It just is less appealing to watch at times.
But there is a case to be made for the Commanders and Sam Howell scoring enough points to put this one over the total.
First of all, the Rams don’t have a corner or a safety that grades out in the top 28 in defensive back grades. Their TD to interception ratio is tied with the Carolina Panthers, and the only team worse than them is…you guessed it, the Washington Commanders.
Neither team forces their opponents to turn the ball over much. The Washington Commanders rank No. 32 in Defensive DVOA.
On offense, the Commanders rank in the top half of the league in 20-yard plays in the passing game. Howell can fling it around when he gets time and uses his legs well.
The Rams are No. 4 in 20-yard pass plays. Both of these lead to drives that end in touchdowns more often than not. Both teams are also in the top half of the league in 20-yard plays overall.
The total of the Commanders' last 6 games was 326 points (54.3 PPG), and that’s with Washington averaging less than 15 PPG themselves.
The Rams have scored 37, 36, or 31 points in their last 3 games, and the game totals were 51, 55, and 68. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both playing well, the Rams should continue to move up and down the field and score points.
I see no reason for this trend to stop with either in this game, and I’ll gladly take the over 50 ½.