Coach's Picks: Best Bets Against The Spread, NFL Week 5

Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.

There are some fun games to watch this week and to play accordingly.

My favorite game to watch will be Dak Prescott and Tony Pollard going against this San Francisco defense. Most are going to be looking forward to the opposite of that.

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys Spread Prediction:

Look for the Dallas Cowboys to cover the spread as 3.5-point road underdogs and for the game to go Over 45 points.

» Bet the Cowboys +3.5 and Over 45 points now

Why I like the Cowboys to cover the spread vs. the 49ers in Week 5:

San Francisco and Dallas come into the game ranked No. 2 and No. 5 respectively in DVOA this week.

The 49ers come in at No. 2 on offense and No. 7 on defense while the Cowboys come in ranked No. 16 on offense but No. 1 on defense.

Based on that and the fact that the Patriots could not find that weak spot that the Cardinals did, I believe they have shored that up and may be able to guard George Kittle effectively, or at least as well as most. I do think he will get his in this game though.

The 49ers are No.11 in rushing yards per attempt on defense, and Dallas needs to run Pollard to be able to set up play action, which Dak has really been good at over the last few years.

I like that Dallas is not afraid to use CeeDee Lamb and the middle of the field, and I think that 49ers secondary is the most vulnerable part of that defense.

Dallas has been Jekyll and Hyde if you look at the last three weeks on offense, but look for them to be focused this week and take advantage of that secondary.

Because of Nick Bosa and that 49er front, teams throw a lot of short completions on them and don’t really try to attack that 18- to 30-yard area. I think Dallas will and will exploit that.

Meanwhile, one of my favorite metrics is quarterback accuracy, and Brock Purdy and Dak are not separated by much there. They are both ranked high enough for my liking even after a bad week by Prescott a couple of weeks ago. I think both will be effective at times.

I know I mentioned earlier that the Cowboys have shored up the defense, what little needed to be shored up, but let’s honestly say that the Dolphins and the 49ers can find weaknesses anywhere.

I do think Dallas can put some pressure on Purdy with the front four and Micah Parsons, but I still think points will be scored.

So how do I have a wager on two of what I think are fairly equal teams as is shown by those DVOA numbers?

Offensive line! Offensive line! Offensive line!

Right now the Cowboys are ranked No. 6 and the 49ers have fallen to No. 18. Like the boys at PFF say, if it weren’t for Trent Williams being such a strong anchor, they would have some real problems that we would see.

That will enable the Cowboys to win this game outright. I still think the creativity of Shanahan will help them get to 24-27 points, but I see Dallas setting up at least one score on defense and scoring 31 points themselves.

I always come out with two picks per week. I think this one game has my two picks.

Dallas +3.5 AND over 45 are my two plays this week.