In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.
This week we're focusing solely on the Thanksgiving games, giving out my favorite prop from each matchup.
Consider the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop
This prop is on a win streak, so take the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop against the Detroit Lions.
Jordan Love’s completions prop, current line:
The Green Bay Packers have adjusted their pass-game approach over the last few weeks to make things easier on Jordan Love.
According to TruMedia, through the first four weeks of the season, 41% of Love’s throws were at least 10 yards downfield 一 and he was completing just 39% of those attempts.
Since Week 5, however, Love’s downfield rate has dropped to 31%, which has led to a rise in his overall completion rate.
As a result, the over on Love’s completions has hit in five consecutive games.
Consider the over on Terry McLaurin’s longest reception prop
Based on the Dallas Cowboys coverage scheme, take the over on Terry McLaurin’s longest reception prop.
Terry McLaurin’s longest reception prop, current line:
The Cowboys are a tough defensive matchup, but their coverage scheme should create some opportunities downfield for Terry McLaurin.
Dallas relies on single-high safety coverages at the league’s second-highest rate, using it on 71% of snaps outside the red zone 一 the league average is 56%, per TruMedia.
It’s also noteworthy 一 especially with Dallas favored by 10.5 points 一 that the Cowboys never shift away from this coverage scheme.
Most teams use more two-high coverage when protecting a lead to limit big plays. But even when protecting a lead of a touchdown or more in the second half, Dallas sticks with single-high coverage on 70% of snaps 一 the league average drops to 49% in that scenario.
Coverages don’t significantly impact Washington’s target share distribution, but it does affect how McLaurin is used in the offense.
Take a look at his percentage of targets at 15 or more yards downfield depending on the coverage scheme, per TruMedia:
- Single-high coverage: 38%
- Two-high coverage: 24%
So against a defense like Dallas, McLaurin should get multiple downfield opportunities to haul in a pass that hits the over.
Consider the over on George Kittle’s receptions prop
The Seattle Seahawks coverage scheme is a good matchup here, so take the over on George Kittle’s receptions prop.
George Kittle’s receptions prop, current line:
Although George Kittle’s usage tends to suffer when Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are both healthy, the Seahawks' conservative defense should help Kittle’s stat line.
Seattle almost exclusively plays zone coverage and pairs it with no blitz on 67% of snaps, per TruMedia.
The zone/no-blitz combo won’t necessarily boost Kittle’s usage, but it should help his receptions total. Kittle has an 85% catch rate against zone/no-blitz coverage, compared to 71% against all other coverage schemes.
Seattle will let Brock Purdy dink and dunk his way down the field, which should create plenty of easy throws to Kittle.
