In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.
Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day. This early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.
Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Consider the over on George Pickens’ receiving yards prop
Take the over on George Pickens’ receiving yards against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon.
George Pickens’ receiving yards prop, current line:
In a league where everyone loves zone coverage, the Browns’ high rate of man coverage often gives us an advantage in betting markets.
Cleveland plays man on 45% of their snaps, the league’s highest rate and far above the league average of 24%.
The Steelers love George Pickens in one-on-one situations, which makes this an ideal matchup for him. Pickens leads the Steelers in target share against man coverage at 35% this season, per TruMedia.
In the first matchup between these teams, Pickens had 127 yards on a season-high 10 targets.
Pickens benefitted from Diontae Johnson’s absence in that game, but if we filter out his reps when Johnson has been off the field, Pickens still has a 38% target share against man.
So Johnson's presence does not seem to be a factor in Pickens' usage against the Browns' preferred coverage scheme.
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Consider the over on DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception prop
Based on the rate Will Levis throws downfield, take the over on DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception.
DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception prop, current line:
We played this prop last week and lost. However, the Titans’ pass-game approach played out as expected, so we should trust our process and take another shot.
Since taking over as the starter, Levis has thrown 15 or more yards downfield at the league’s highest rate (35%) 一 10 percentage points higher than any other quarterback in the league, per TruMedia.
Despite the lack of downfield completions last week, Levis’ approach did not change.
Against the Bucs, 36% of Levis’ throws were 15 or more yards downfield, and a season-high 28% traveled 20 or more yards through the air.
This week, the Titans draw an ordinary Jaguars pass defense. Jacksonville ranks 19th in completions allowed at 15 or more yards downfield and 15th in completion percentage at that distance, per TruMedia.
Consider the over on Noah Brown’s longest reception prop
Keep an eye on his injury status, but if he's active, take the over on Noah Brown’s longest reception.
Noah Brown’s longest reception prop, current line:
We’ve been targeting the Cardinals defense for this prop lately and won each of the last two weeks with Amari Cooper and Kyle Pitts. This week we’re going with Noah Brown based on his usage in recent weeks.
Since returning to action in Week 6, Brown has 10 of the Texans’ 21 receptions on targets 15 or more yards downfield, per TruMedia.
Nico Collins‘ absence last week certainly helped Brown, but in the three previous games, Brown had five receptions on seven targets at 15 or more yards compared to three catches on six targets for Collins.
Arizona has allowed a 60% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 31st, and also a 60% completion rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield, ranked dead last.
Brown’s longest reception prop was available at just 18.5 yards last week but will likely jump up a few yards after his recent performances.
Consider the over on Dalton Schultz’s receptions prop
Based on the Cardinals coverage scheme, take the over on Dalton Schultz’s receptions.
Dalton Schultz’s receptions prop, current line:
No defense uses two-high coverage more than the Cardinals 一 59% when outside the red zone. This coverage scheme creates more opportunities in the middle of the field, often leading to increased usage for tight ends.
That trend holds true for Houston, as Dalton Schultz leads the team with a 22% target share against two-high coverages, per TruMedia.
Even when sharing the field with Noah Brown and Nico Collins, both of whom have missed time this year, Schultz has maintained that 22% target share against two-high coverages.
Schultz has been recovering from a hamstring injury this week, so monitor his status, but if healthy this over looks like a strong play.
Consider the under on Javonte Williams’ receiving yards prop
Based on the Minnesota Vikings defensive scheme, take the under on Javonte Williams’ receiving yards.
Javonte Williams’ receiving yards prop, current line:
The under for this prop is 8-2 on the year for starting running backs against the Vikings 一 only Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey have hit their overs.
The reason for this trend is Brian Flores’ aggressive defense, which blitzes at the league’s highest rate (49%), per TruMedia.
Across the league, running backs see a 14% target share against the blitz compared to 20% on non-blitzes.
Denver’s splits are not quite as dramatic, but Broncos running backs collectively see a 30% target share on non-blitzes and 26% against the blitz.
The Vikings' high blitz rate also has the potential to increase Samaje Perine’s playing time at the expense of Williams.
In games in which both are active, Perine has been used in pass protection on 14.6% of his snaps compared to 5.6% for Williams, per TruMedia.
Perine also has been on the field 66% of the time on third downs with five or more yards to go compared to 6.6% for Williams 一 a strong indicator of who is more trusted in pass protection.
So if Denver is anticipating more blitzes from Minnesota (and they should be), expect some extra snaps for Perine when Denver is looking to throw the ball.
Our annual free week has wrapped up, and we hope you didn't miss out! Since the start of November, our sides and totals are 22-9 (71%) and our elevated plays are 22-7 (76%). For the season, a $100 bettor on our standard unit size release is up $4,906. We want everyone to stay on board, so we're offering an enormous discount for a limited time. Use code SHARP71 to get an astonishing 71% off any package we offer! It's not too good to be true, but it will end soon. Click here to learn more.