In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.
Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day. This early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.
Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Consider the over on Diontae Johnson’s reception prop
In a friendly defensive matchup, take the over on Diontae Johnson’s longest reception.
Diontae Johnson’s longest reception prop, current line:
We have been attacking the Arizona Cardinals defense with this prop a lot lately based on their pitiful downfield defense. According to TruMedia, Arizona allows a league-worst 61% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield.
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ downfield throws are split between Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. However, Arizona’s coverage scheme likely creates more opportunities for Johnson.
Outside the red zone, no one lines up in two high safety formations more than Arizona (59%).
This coverage trend bodes well for Johnson’s usage, as he leads the team with a 21% target share against two high compared to 16% for Pickens, per TruMedia.
Given Arizona’s defensive issues, it’s reasonable to take the over on both Steelers receivers, but my preference is to target Johnson based on the coverage scheme.
Consider the over on DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception prop
Based on the Tennessee Titans' aggressive passing attack, take the over on DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception.
DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception prop, current line:
I’ve been stubbornly sticking with this prop despite mediocre results (3-2 since Will Levis took over).
The rate at which Levis throws downfield should allow DeAndre Hopkins to hit the over at a consistent rate in a larger sample size. Levis leads the league in his rate of throwing 15 or more yards downfield (32% of his attempts) and 20 or more yards (20%), per TruMedia.
Since Levis took over, Hopkins has seen 12 targets at 20 or more yards downfield 一 2.4 per game, the third most in the league over that span.
The Indianapolis Colts are allowing a 41% completion rate on throws of at least 20 yards, ranked 24th per TruMedia, so this looks like a favorable matchup for Hopkins.
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Consider the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop
Against an inconsistent New Orleans Saints defense, take the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop, current line:
Over his last five games, Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the over on this number in four of five games, and he gets a favorable matchup against the Saints this week.
New Orleans has consistently given opposing running backs open lanes, and explosive ball carriers like Gibbs will take advantage of those mistakes.
According to TruMedia, running backs pick up at least three yards before contact on 26% of carries against the Saints, the league's fifth-worst rate.
When Gibbs gets at least three untouched yards, he converts it into a gain of 15 or more yards on 24% of those plays.
Detroit is favored by four points in this matchup, so the potential for a run-heavy game script could also work in Gibbs’ favor.
Consider the under on Tutu Atwell’s receptions prop
We like to play props against the Cleveland Browns’ defense, so let’s take the under on Tutu Atwell’s receptions this week.
Tutu Atwell’s reception prop, current line:
The Browns use man coverage on a league-high 44% of snaps, well above the NFL’s average of 24%, per TruMedia. Since this is an outlier defense, it often gives us an edge in props.
Since Cooper Kupp returned, Tutu Atwell’s usage has plummeted, and it has particularly affected him against man coverage.
Dating back to Week 5, Kupp and Puka Nacua have combined to dominate 68.9% of the Rams targets versus man coverage compared to 49.6% against zone coverage.
Atwell also suffers against man coverage due to a lower catch rate, per TruMedia:
- 47% catch rate versus man coverage
- 69% catch rate versus zone coverage
The reason for the drop in catch rate is due to more downfield usage against man. Since Kupp’s return, 22% of Atwell's targets against zone have been 20 or more yards downfield compared to 33% against man coverage.
Since Kupp got back on the field, Atwell has reached three receptions in just two of seven games, so I’ll play this prop so long as the line is available at 2.5 or higher.
Consider the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop
We played this prop and won on Thanksgiving, so let’s take the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Jordan Love’s completions prop, current line:
Adjustments to the Green Bay Packers passing attack have led to an increase in completion rate for Jordan Love, which has led to the over hitting on this prop in six consecutive games.
Through his first four games, 41% of Love’s attempts were 10 or more yards downfield, but that rate has dropped to 32% since Week 5, per TruMedia.
As a result, Love’s 56% completion rate through his first four games has jumped to 63% over his last seven contests.
In this particular matchup, Love should also benefit from the Chiefs’ high rate of two high safety coverages. According to TruMedia, Kansas City lines up in two high coverages on a league-high 54% of snaps.
Since Love’s pass distribution shifted in Week 5, he’s benefitted from two high coverages, based on this data from TruMedia:
- 63% completion rate versus single high
- 68% completion rate versus two high
The Chiefs are favored by 6.5 points at home, so Love may also have the ability to pad his numbers with a pass-heavy approach late in the game if Green Bay is playing from behind.