Diving into Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season, I’m zeroing in on two games that offer enticing angles: the Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons.
The focus will be on Courtland Sutton‘s potential for a breakout performance against a vulnerable Ravens secondary, and value in the Cowboys' offensive troubles to continue.
In a season where offensive trends and defensive matchups have been as unpredictable as ever, these games stand out for their unique combinations of player skills, team tendencies, and situational factors.
Here are two props to target for Week 9 of the NFL.
Week 9 Prediction: Courtland Sutton Over 51.5 receiving yards
The Ravens' secondary has been a goldmine for opposing wide receivers, surrendering the most receiving yards and touchdowns in the league to the position.
Even in Baltimore's three home games against the Raiders, Bills, and Commanders, top receivers consistently eclipsed 62 yards, with Davante Adams torching them for 110 yards.
While the Ravens defense has shown improvement at home, they still allowed three separate Washington receivers to make catches of 24-plus yards.
Bo Nix‘s aggressive passing style plays perfectly into this matchup.
Ranking second in the league with 37 deep ball attempts, Nix is likely to target Sutton frequently on these high-value plays.
Sutton's 14 receptions in the medium (9) to deep (5) range this season demonstrate his ability to capitalize on these opportunities.
Game script could further benefit Sutton.
If the Ravens' high-powered offense (averaging over 30 points per game) takes an early lead, Denver may be forced into a pass-heavy approach.
Even if Baltimore attempts to neutralize the deep threat, it could open up intermediate routes for Sutton, potentially increasing his reception count and yardage.
With Sutton's big-play ability and the Ravens' vulnerable secondary, the stage is set for him to exceed 51.5 receiving yards, making this an attractive prop bet for Week 9.
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Week 9 Prediction: Cowboys Under 2.5 total touchdowns (+130)
This prop bet becomes increasingly attractive when considering Dallas' recent offensive woes, particularly their red zone inefficiency.
The Cowboys rank 31st in red zone touchdown scoring percentage, a stark contrast to their 12th-best 57.89% conversion rate in 2023.
At the heart of this decline is quarterback Dak Prescott‘s performance.
Prescott's red zone completion rate of 48% ranks 23rd in the league while his red zone accuracy rating of 4.7 places him 35th in the NFL.
Adding to these concerns, Prescott has produced the most interceptable passes overall this season.
Dallas' scoring struggles extend beyond the red zone.
The team ranks fourth in field goal attempts with kicker Brandon Aubrey attempting the third-most field goals from 40-49 yards and the second-most from 50+ yards.
Notably, 17 of Aubrey's 18 successful field goals have come from beyond 30 yards, indicating the offense's difficulty in reaching the end zone.
The Falcons' game plan could further hinder the Cowboys' touchdown production.
Atlanta's run game, which gains five-plus yards on 44% of attempts (highest in the league), is well-positioned to exploit Dallas' second-worst rushing defense (allowing 155 yards per game).
This approach could effectively control the clock, sustain long drives, and limit the Cowboys' possessions and scoring opportunities.
At plus money, the Cowboys scoring under 2.5 touchdowns presents an enticing proposition for Week 9.
