Each week during the 2021 NFL season, Sports Info Solutions will highlight the spread of three games including Monday Night Football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Atlanta Falcons
This is a matchup of the No. 1 and No. 32 teams in our Total Points power rankings. Yes, the 5-6 Falcons are even below the Lions on account of their lack of good wins and their abundance of blowout losses.
Round 1 of this matchup in Tampa got lopsided by the game’s end with Tom Brady throwing for five touchdowns and Matt Ryan throwing a pair of pick-sixes in the fourth quarter.
The Buccaneers rank fourth in Passing Points Earned Per Play and have the league’s No. 1 unit in Blocking Points Earned Per Play (and the lowest Blown Block Rate on Designed Passes). The Falcons have the No. 31 pass rush (and easily the lowest pressure rate in the league) and the No. 27 pass coverage on a per-play basis.
Oh, and this game features the Falcons’ No. 32 blocking unit (which has the highest blown block rate on passes). Sounds like Ryan is in for a rough day.
Is there any hope for the Falcons in this one?
If so, it may rest with Cordarrelle Patterson, who rushed for 108 yards and two scores in last week’s win over the Jaguars. He’s going up against a Buccaneers team that ranks 18th in Run Defense Points Saved Per Play but that held Patterson to 11 yards on seven rushes in their last meeting.
Patterson ranks eighth in yards per attempt on runs that were either off-tackle or to the outside among the 50 running backs and fullbacks with the most such rushes (he averaged 5.3 yards per rush).
The Buccaneers rank 15th in Rush Defense Points Saved on such runs, so Atlanta’s hope is to get the ball first, and run it well enough early such that it doesn’t have to throw the ball on every play as the game progresses. If it can’t execute that … look out.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets
The Eagles bring a multi-pronged rushing attack into this game, having run for at least 200 yards in four of the last five games. The Jets are one of the league’s worst rush defenses.
You could cross out “rush” if you wanted. Week 12 against the Texans marked the first time that the Jets finished a game with positive Expected Points Added for their defense.
Jalen Hurts has been limited in practice this week by a sprained ankle, which may limit his rushing. But the Eagles' running backs have been good in the opportunities they’ve had. They rank ninth in Rushing Points Earned Per Play and first in Positive Percentage (percentage of plays with positive Expected Points) at nearly 50%.
Hurts struggled to pass against the Giants' defense but there’s a big difference between the two teams that call MetLife Stadium home. The Giants ranked 11th in Pass Coverage Points Saved prior to their meeting with the Dolphins. The Jets rank 29th.
It also seems unlikely that Jalen Reagor will drop two (critical) passes as he did last week against the Giants. Obviously, with other options like DeVonta Smith, Reagor may not get the opportunity to catch as many balls. But also, drops aren’t that much of a part of Reagor’s game. He’d only had two on 92 targets in his career up through Week 11.
So there are a lot of reasons to think this week would be a bounceback for the Eagles. Finding ones for the Jets is a struggle. The best case is probably to believe in a pass rush that ranked third among teams last week in Points Saved Per Play in a win over a mediocre Texans team. That belies the larger sample of a 19th-place ranking for the season.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3)
The Patriots are arguably the most complete team in the NFL. They rank in the top 13 in Passing Points Earned, Rushing Points Earned, Receiving Points Earned, Blocking Points Earned, Run Defense Points Saved, Pass Rush Points Saved, and Pass Coverage Points Saved on a per-game basis.
The Bills nearly match this, failing to rank in the top half only in Blocking Points Earned (20th)
The absence of Bills All-Pro defensive back Tre’Davious White is a notable story, though how notable will depend on how often the Patriots try to take downfield shots. White ranked 22nd in Points Saved Per Play among the 100 cornerbacks that have faced the most targets this season.
There’s not a lot of comparable sample to go on given that White has been on the field for all but six plays this season when the game was within two scores.
Last season, in that same situation, White was off the field for 78 plays. On those 78 plays, the opposing team produced at a rate 5 EPA/60 plays better than it did when he was on the field (they went from -6 to -1).
However, the Bills can take comfort in the rest of their defensive backfield. Jordan Poyer has five picks, and Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson are both in the top quadrant among corners in yards per cover snap and EPA per target.
White would not have been the best cornerback on the field from a statistical perspective had he been healthy. That honor goes to J.C. Jackson, who leads all cornerbacks in Pass Defense Points Saved and ranks second in QB Rating against (White was third in the latter).
Meanwhile, this game will also function as a great test in the trenches, particularly when each team looks to throw the ball.
The Patriots are allowing pressure at the fourth-lowest rate in the league (29% of designed passes) even though they’ve been blitzed at the second-highest rate (31%).
The Bills defense has the second-highest pressure rate in the league (39%).
The Patriots’ defense has the league’s sixth-highest pressure rate and the Bills are middle-of-the-pack in how often they face pressure (34%).
How does each quarterback handle pressure?
This is where there’s a big advantage for Josh Allen. He ranks second in Passing Points Earned Per Play when pressured among the 35 quarterbacks who have the most pass attempts under pressure. Mac Jones ranks 16th. So if you think Allen gets pressured, chances are he can handle it. Keeping Jones clean will be a huge key for the Patriots.