Each week during the 2021 NFL season, Sports Info Solutions will highlight the spread of three games including Monday Night Football.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
The Rams have a few significant advantages here. They’re the No. 2 team in Passing Points Earned Per Play and the No. 1 team in Blocking Points going up against a Vikings team that while sixth in Pass Rush Points Saved Per Play, ranks last in Pass Coverage Points Earned Per Play.
The Vikings pass rush is likely to be neutralized by a Rams offensive line that has the second-lowest blown block percentage on passes this season and ranks first in Blocking Points Earned Per Play. Both members of the left side of the Rams offensive line, Andrew Whitworth and David Edwards, rank in the top three in the league in Total Points.
Additionally, the Rams rank ninth in both Run Defense Points Saved Per Play and Pass Rush Points Saved Per Play, going up against a team that ranks 28th in Blocking Points Per Play. By our Total Points player value stat, Aaron Donald has (once again) been the runaway leader at defensive tackle. Jalen Ramsey ranks No. 2 at cornerback.
The primary purpose of the last four paragraphs was to tilt you towards understanding that the Rams are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL and have many ways to tilt this game significantly into their favor.
If you’re believing in the Vikings, you’re factoring in that Minnesota keeps every game close. 13 of their 14 games have been decided by eight points or fewer. And you’re expecting better than what Kirk Cousins has shown each of the last two weeks. Having a healthy Adam Thielen would improve their chances. He’s missed the last two games with a high ankle sprain.
With Thielen on the field this season, Kirk Cousins has a 68% completion percentage. When he’s off the field, that drops to 61%, and the rate at which their quarterback gets sacked jumps from 3.6% to 6.2%. In sum, his presence is worth a net of 15 Expected Points Added per 60 passes (+8 when he’s on the field, -7 when he’s off).
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
The Steelers are coming off their best defensive game of the season by far, netting four turnovers against the Titans. They’ve now beaten the Bills, Ravens, and Titans at different points this season. Asking them to replicate that against the Chiefs is a tall, tall, tall order.
Kansas City ranks fourth in Passing Points Earned Per Play and 6th in Receiving Points Earned Per Play this season (you wouldn’t expect anything less, right?). Those can be knocked down a peg or two or three with all the COVID issues Kansas City is dealing with (including Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill), but even so, we’re not sure how the Steelers are going to score this week against a Kansas City team that has allowed nine points or fewer in four straight home games.
The Steelers rank 32nd in Passing Points Earned Per Play. In fact, they’re the only team in the NFL whose passing nets negative Points Earned Per Play on average.
That Ben Roethlisberger did alright against a Titans team that ranks near the top in Pass Defense Points Earned may have been a fortunate occurrence. The Chiefs aren’t as good as the Titans in defending the pass, but they rank a respectable 12th in Pass Defense Points Earned Per Play and also rank fifth in Pass Rush Points Earned Per Play. They’re going to be a tough team for Big Ben to pass against.
Pittsburgh’s best hope is in how well it can run the ball, thus keeping the Chiefs' offense off the field. The Chiefs rank 26th in Run Defense Points Earned Per Play, so there’s room for optimism here. However, since Week 11, the Steelers rank 25th in Rushing Points Earned Per Play.
Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints (-3)
Might we be in for a repeat of the Saints’ 9-0 win over the Buccaneers last week? There are indicators pointing in that direction, hence this game having the lowest Total of any NFL game this week.
The Dolphins take a step up in class against the Saints, and yes, a .500 team qualifies as a step up, considering that five of the six wins in this Dolphins’ winning streak came against teams that are 5-9 or worse (including the Jets twice).
If you’re going to believe in the Dolphins, it’s probably because of a defense that allowed only 10 points to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Dolphins sacked Jackson four times and held him to 39 rushing yards on nine attempts.
If that defense, which has the second-highest pressure percentage in the NFL, shows up, the Saints and rookie starter Ian Book may be in for another low-scoring challenge.
Book will be challenged in that Saints quarterbacks have faced defensive pressure at the eighth-highest rate in the league.
Tua Tagovailoa is also going to be challenged in this game. Yes, he has an NFL-best 72.6% completion percentage and the highest positive percentage on non-RPO passes since Week 9, but he’s done that with the lowest ADOT in the league in that time (6.4 yards).
The Saints rank third in the NFL in Points Saved Per Play specifically on passes traveling less than 10 yards downfield, and they’re first in the league in that stat since Week 9. So Tagovailoa’s go-to options may be more limited than usual.
Remember that he’s going up against a defense that has held offenses led by Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers to a combined three points.
