I went 1-1 on best bets last week, with an outright Niners win while completely whiffing on Andy Dalton and the Cowboys.
Well, I have been hinting at this for a couple of weeks now but we finally saw unders have a profitable week. The points scored this past week came in at 47.3, which is the exact same average as in Week 1. However, whereas overs hit in nine of the 16 games in Week 1, we saw only four of 14 go over this past week, even though the average points per game was exactly the same. That points to what I have discussed here for the last few weeks, that the market inflation on these totals has made it really difficult to consistently hit overs.
At this point in the season, some teams have really benefited or been hurt due to turnovers. There is no better correlation to success historically in the NFL than winning the turnover margin. But in many, though not every, case teams that start a season on either side of the turnover margin typically see regression towards the mean in the back half of a season. And just a random bounce of the ball either way can make the difference towards end of season win loss percentage.
Just looking at a two-year sample of turnover margins at this same point in the season, we can see that every single team that was in the top-5 in terms of turnover margin, saw them have a worse turnover margin in their remaining games.
The 10 teams in the last two seasons that led the NFL in turnover margin after six weeks, in aggregate, had a -0.72 margin per game the rest of the way. In aggregate, they started the season with a +1.15 margin.
Teams that currently sit at the top of the turnover margin ranking include Seattle, Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City. It isn’t shocking that the combined records of these teams is a sparkling 24-1 straight up & 16-9 ats (64%) in games played against any opponent not in the top-5 of turnover margin (ie Baltimore vs KC doesn’t count).
Just looking at the two-year sample from 2018 and 2019, these teams that started the season in the top 5, in aggregate, started the season with a 61% ats win percentage. So. awfully similar to this season’s ats start. If you only isolate those teams with a good turnover margin and also started with a positive ats win percentage, they started a combined 28-13-1 (68%).
Because turnovers are, in a lot of cases but not all cases, random you would expect them to regress towards the middle of the pack and therefore impact ats win percentage in a way that would see much closer to a 50% range.
These teams in 2018 and 2019 finished the season with a 52% ats win percentage in their final 10 games. If you only look at those teams in the top-5 of turnover margin and had a winning ats percentage to start the season, they started with a combined 68% ats percentage but in the remaining games finished with a 51% ats win percentage.
The team that would fit this category in 2020 would be Tennessee. Recent history would say that the Titans should be closer to 50% ats over the rest of the season.
The opposite has been true for teams that started the season at the bottom of turnover margin. Every single team in the last two seasons that started in the bottom-5, all improved the rest of the season. In aggregate, these 10 teams started the season with a -1.33 turnover margin per game but finished the rest of the season with an average margin of +0.56 turnovers per game after Week 6.
Teams that currently sit at the bottom of the turnover margin ranking include Dallas, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Denver and Las Vegas. It isn’t shocking that the combined records of these teams is a poor 10-16-1 straight up & 12-16 ats (43%). In 2018 and 2019, in aggregate, the teams that started the season at the bottom of the turnover margin rankings, started with a 38% ats win percentage. Not surprising given how influential turnovers are in a game to an outcome. They did, however, finish the season in aggregate with a 47% ats win percentage, in line with historical regression.
It isn’t perfect or linear but expect the poor turnover margin teams to start covering games at a clip much closer to 50%. If you only isolate those teams with a poor turnover margin and also started with a negative ats win percentage, they started a combined 12-29 (29%). Those teams ended the season with an ats win percentage of 51%. Teams that fit this category include Dallas and Philadelphia.
Week 6 Best Bets
Green Bay Packers/Houston Texans over 56
You may be wondering why I would discuss how unders are starting to make their run, since totals have been too inflated, then go with an over here. I think this matchup is too juicy to ignore. We have a Packers offense that started the season as the best in the NFL, in most meaningful categories, then went into Tampa and got punched in the mouth.
I was obviously on the Bucs last week because I thought their defense could get pressure on Aaron Rodgers while their secondary was good enough to take away Davante Adams. That’s what ended up happening and after a 16/35, 160 yard, 2 INT game from Rodgers, this is a prime bounce-back spot.
This Packers offense ranks third in overall success rate, third in passing, and second running the football. The Packers have produced the fifth-highest percentage of explosive run plays and seventh in adjusted line yards. This is an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has been atrocious.
Houston ranks 28th in rush success rate defense and 29th in pass defense. They have been especially bad stopping the run, ranking 32nd in adjusted line yards, 32nd in open field defense, and have allowed the third-highest percentage of explosive run plays.
To add more fuel to the fire, the Texans defense is 25th in pressure rate and obviously that’s not what you want to see against a Rodgers-led passing game. The Texans defense hasn’t even faced an OL that is in the top 14 in lowest pressure rate allowed so they are essentially getting no pressure against a schedule of offenses that haven’t protected the QB well.
Now they have to face a Packers offense that has allowed the eighth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL and Rodgers ranks second in TD percentage and third in yards per attempt from a clean pocket. This Texans defense has allowed an average of 30.3 points per game, having allowed every opponent outside of Jacksonville to score at least 28 points this season.
On the other side of the ball, Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense should be able to continue their strong play of late. They have scored 30 and 36 points the last two games, against the only two defenses they have faced that don’t rank in the top half of the NFL in DVOA defense. The Packers rank 30th right now and didn’t face many of their opponents’ top WRs like Michael Thomas, Kenny Golladay or a healthy Julio Jones.
Watson ranks 11th in passing efficiency and has generated the second-highest percentage of explosive passes in the NFL this season. This Houston offense has always struggled to protect Watson but against a Packer defense that has the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, Watson and his fourth-best passer rating from a clean pocket should be able to produce a bunch of big plays. Let’s add in that these defenses rank 30th and 28th in missed tackles per game, these teams rank as the eighth and 19th-fastest-paced offenses in neutral game situations and I can’t find a single reason not to love this over.
Cleveland Browns -3 vs Cincinnati Bengals
When evaluating Baker Mayfield and this Browns team, it’s fairly easy to see the types of defenses that give him trouble. He entered last week 31st in the NFL in passer rating when facing pressure, after struggling mightily last year as well.
Facing the heavy blitz schemes of the Ravens and the ferocious pass rush of the Steelers, Mayfield struggled terribly. In games against defenses not named the Steelers or Ravens, Mayfield has produced the fifth-best epa per dropback and seventh-best success rate in the NFL. He’s a solid 14th in the NFL in passer rating and seventh in touchdown percentage when throwing from a clean pocket.
He will not have to worry about facing much pressure on Sunday as the Bengals have produced the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. In fact, in their first meeting the Bengals barely touched Mayfield, generating eight hurries but zero sacks and zero QB hits. On throws with no pressure, Mayfield was 12/15 for 172 yards, 11.2 ypa, and two touchdowns.
And it is no coincidence that Mayfield also plays his best when one of the best run offenses in the NFL can get going to take the pressure off of Mayfield. The Browns rank first in explosive run percentage and second in adjusted line yards on offense. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-highest explosive run percentage and rank 25th in adjusted defensive line yards.
He also will face this Bengals defense that is missing DE Sam Hubbard and DT D.J. Reader, who grade out as the two best run defenders along the Bengals DL by OFF. In addition, veterans Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins have both publicly complained about their roles on the team and didn’t practice on Wednesday. The depth along the DL will be tested as the backups for Cincinnati have been terrible stopping the run. In fact, with both Hubbard and Reader out, the Bengals currently have no DL graded in the top 100 in run defense among all NFL DL. Kareem Hunt ran for 86 yards on 10 carries and an extremely impressive 70% success rate in their first matchup. Look for a heavy dose of Hunt on Sunday.
Defensively, the Browns will almost certainly give up some yardage but will at least be healthy in the secondary as compared to the first outing against the Bengals. Cincinnati consistently spread the field with 4-5 WR sets and dink and dunked their way to a backdoor cover. They were able to do this because the Browns were short on CB depth. The good news is slot CB Kevin Johnson, who didn’t play in that first meeting, has been playing well for the Browns and currently is 10th in passer rating allowed and top 20 in yards per snap allowed among all NFL slot CBs.
In addition, safety Ronnie Harrison will play this week after missing last week’s game with a concussion. He only played six snaps in the first meeting. It always helps for defenses to see a rookie QB for a second time and this will be the first time Burrow has had to face a defense twice.
Best Bets Record YTD: 7-5-2 (58%)
