Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Broncos Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Broncos are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Broncos Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The 2022 Broncos required a MASH unit on both sides of the ball.
They finished last in adjusted games lost to injury with an increase of more than 40 adjusted games lost over 2021, a year in with the fifth-worst injury luck.
The offense missed the second most games to injury, and the offensive line was particularly affected as ten different starters were used.
The defense didn’t fare much better as it ranked fourth in adjusted games lost.
In addition to terrible injury luck, opposing kickers made 39 of 41 field goals, 5.78 field goals over expected. A turnaround in the league's worst injury and field goal luck is expected.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Despite all the injuries, the defense finished as a top-10 unit overall in EPA/play and Football Outsiders DVOA.
The pass defense was exceptionally strong, allowing a league-low in yards per pass attempt.
The defense has a chance to get off to a strong start as the Broncos’ opening five weeks see four opponents that finished in the bottom half of offensive efficiency metrics in 2022.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
Denver was 4-9 in one-score games last season. They lost five games by three points or fewer.
Denver fell 1.3 wins below their expected total given their point differential.
With Sean Payton now running the show, they should be better in tight games.
» Bet the Broncos Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Broncos Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Broncos have the 10th-most difficult strength of schedule, the fourth-largest jump from last season, and a win total that is 3.5 more than they won last season.
Adding to the difficulty of the schedule is a stretch late in the season from Week 13 to Week 15 in which the Broncos have three-straight road games.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Relying on strengthening the team via the draft was not an option.
The Broncos had the second-least draft capital despite being a five-win team the previous season and acquiring the Dolphins’ first-round pick in a trade for pass rusher Bradley Chubb.
The acquisitions of Russell Wilson and Sean Payton totaled three first and three second-round picks, hindering the ability to build the roster with young depth.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Denver’s defense was stifling most of last season, but that level of play is difficult for any defense to maintain year after year, especially one that lost talent like Chubb and Dre’Mont Jones.
Even if Payton is able to get the offense moving in the right direction, natural defensive regression could make things difficult.
» Bet the Broncos Win Total Under
Denver Broncos Strength of Schedule:
The Broncos are ranked #23 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 10th-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.