Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Browns Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Browns are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Browns Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Browns finished 2-6 in one-score games, a record that will likely regress closer to average. They had -4.6 net fumbles over expectation, the second-worst fumble luck in the league. They also sported the seventh-worst field goal luck.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Browns have three games with a rest advantage and only one with a rest disadvantage. Their +10 net rest advantage is the fifth-best in the league. In addition, the Browns do not play any teams coming off a bye or Thursday night game.
The one game with a disadvantage is early in the season, a Week 3 home game following Monday Night Football. Two of the rest advantages are late in the season – a Week 14 game against Jacksonville and a Week 18 divisional game against the Bengals with three days of extra rest.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The offensive line is one of the best in the league, and all five starters return after last season. The line finished the season ranked third in ESPN’s pass block win rate even though the starting unit missed some time – they only played 28.6% of the snaps together.
A healthy, dominant offensive line will be key to Deshaun Watson improving in his second season in Cleveland.
» Bet the Browns Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Browns Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The first five games of the schedule are very difficult. The Browns play each division rival and the 49ers with a game against the Titans mixed in.
Four of the five games are against teams projected to finish with a winning record, and the Browns have the second-most difficult opening six weeks. The early bye week is not ideal either as the Browns have a Week 5 bye.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Deshaun Watson returned to action after his one-year hiatus and 12-game suspension, and he played like a quarterback that had missed nearly two years of action.
Watson may return to his 2020 form when he completed over 70% of his passes and threw for over 4,800 yards, but a lot of time has passed and a lot has happened since then.
Watson has over $200 million remaining on his contract. A sluggish start to the season would not be ideal for the Browns organization and fans.
» Bet the Browns Win Total Under
Cleveland Browns Strength of Schedule:
The Browns are ranked #16 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 16th-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
