Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Buccaneers Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Buccaneers are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Buccaneers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
Following two consecutive years of poor injury luck, the Bucs are due for better health in 2023.
Tampa lost the fifth-most games to injury last season, and both sides of the ball had trouble staying healthy.
The offense and defense finished in the top 10 of adjusted games lost to injury.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Fumble and field goal luck positive regression are also likely as the Bucs had -4.3 net fumbles recovered over expectation, the third-worst in the NFL, and finished with a net -2.9 field goals made over expectation.
Regardless of the starting quarterback in 2023, the red zone offense should also improve.
The Bucs slipped from second-best to bottom 10, dropping from a 66.2% touchdown efficiency to 52%.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The rushing attack was abysmal in 2022 finishing with a league-worst -0.21 EPA/rush and the third-worst success rate.
The running backs had the third-fewest yards before contact.
The schedule of opposing rush defenses is projected to be easier, and the return of Ryan Jensen could spark more success for the running game.
#4 Reason to Bet Over:
The 2023 schedule features six divisional games plus matchups against the AFC South.
Of these 10 games, only one team is currently in the top 10 of Super Bowl odds.
» Bet the Buccaneers Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Buccaneers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Buccaneers will have a significant downgrade at quarterback.
In addition to the loss of Tom Brady, his dead cap hit is north of $35 million.
They have the largest dead cap allocation with over $75 million, reducing the team’s ability to upgrade the roster.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The loss of Brady will highlight the offensive line deficiencies.
They not only struggled with run blocking but finished 25th in ESPN’s pass block win rate.
Despite the line, Brady finished the season with an incredible 2.9% sack rate with over half of his sacks coming on third and fourth down.
Baker Mayfield has a career sack rate of 9% which spiked at 11.9% last season in Los Angeles with a poor offensive line.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Although the schedule is easier compared to last season, the Buccaneers' unique three opponents are significantly harder than their division rivals.
By winning the division last season, the Bucs draw the Bills, 49ers, and Eagles, who all rank in the top five in Super Bowl odds.
They also have five games in which they have a rest disadvantage including three games in which opponents are coming off a Thursday Night Football mini-bye.
» Bet the Buccaneers Win Total Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Strength of Schedule:
The Buccaneers are ranked #17 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 16th-hardest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
