Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Cardinals Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Cardinals are predicted to win 4.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Cardinals Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
Regardless of how many games Kyler Murray plays in 2023, the Cardinals could improve upon their 30th-ranked offense in efficiency.
The offense had the third-most adjusted games lost to injury. That was highlighted by the offensive line using 13 starters and being forced to change the lineup 10 times.
Improved health combined with a slight improvement in defensive strength of opponents can help the offense improve upon the 4.8 yards and -0.08 EPA per play from a season ago.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Cardinals won 25% of their one-score games in 2022, going 2-6 despite only having a negative-one turnover differential in those games.
Arizona could potentially experience positive regression in the red zone as the defense allowed a touchdown rate of 65.2%, the fourth-highest rate in the league, and allowed a second-worst 84.2% of goal-to-go drives to end in a touchdown.
» Bet the Cardinals Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Cardinals Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The new front office and coaching staff have signaled the team will take a longer-term approach.
At the draft, the Cardinals moved back while acquiring an additional first-round pick in 2024 and now potentially hold two top-five picks in next year’s draft.
In releasing DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals opted to make the move prior to June 1, which created a $21 million dead cap hit this season but no additional dead cap hit moving forward.
While making decisions and balancing long-term consequences, there is a possibility Kyler Murray is not rushed back from his ACL injury, which would create a significant downgrade at the quarterback position.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Cardinals allowed the second-most points against and the defense was ranked bottom five in success rate allowed.
This unit faces a top-five strength of opposing offenses and lost their best corner and defensive lineman from last season to free agency.
They are also undergoing a coordinator change.
According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals ranked first against #1 wide receivers including limiting Cooper Kupp to a season-low 44 yards. It is unlikely the secondary will be able to maintain such success following the departure of Byron Murphy.
» Bet the Cardinals Win Total Under
Arizona Cardinals Strength of Schedule:
The Cardinals are ranked #22 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 11th-hardest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
