Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Chargers Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Chargers are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Chargers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Chargers offense sustained cluster injuries at wide receiver and on the offensive line in addition to a quarterback playing through injury.
Justin Herbert sustained a rib injury in Week 2 and had offseason shoulder surgery.
The underachieving offense finished 16th in EPA/play despite playing the easiest schedule of opposing defenses.
Improved health for key offensive contributors should help this offense bounce back.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Kellen Moore replaces Joe Lombardi, so the offense will likely have a more aggressive look.
Last season, Herbert averaged 6.42 air yards per attempt compared to Prescott’s 8.18 air yards per attempt under Moore in Dallas.
Moore should also bring improvement in the red zone. The Cowboys had the top-ranked red zone offense last season and finished sixth in 2021.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
Herbert carries a cap hit under $9 million for the final season of his rookie contract.
The Chargers are in win-now mode before Herbert starts his second contract and his cap hit more than triples.
The Chargers have minimal red ink on the ledger, carrying only $2 million in dead money, and have plenty of cap space to make additions to the roster via remaining free agents or a trade.
» Bet the Chargers Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Chargers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Chargers tied for a league-low six games against opponents with a winning record and went 1-5 in those games.
The lone win came against the Miami Dolphins with a possibly compromised Tua Tagovailoa.
The schedule of opponents in 2023 is more difficult with the Chargers projected to face the sixth-most difficult schedule, the third-largest jump from 2022.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Chargers also have the sixth-worst net rest advantage with a -6-day rest net edge.
Three opponents come off mini-bye weeks playing on Thursday Night Football prior to playing the Chargers.
Also of note is a Thursday night road game in Week 15 in Las Vegas following a visit to Denver.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Chargers were 7-5 with a turnover differential of +4 in one-score games last season.
Regression in turnover differential and field goal luck is likely as the Chargers finished the season with the fifth-highest net field goals over expected.
Three different kickers combined for a 93.9% field goal percentage and made all 40 extra point conversions.
Opposing kickers finished with an 80% field goal percentage, missing 1.09 field goals over expectation.
» Bet the Chargers Win Total Under
Los Angeles Chargers Strength of Schedule:
The Chargers are ranked #27 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the sixth-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
