Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Chiefs Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Chiefs are predicted to win 11.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Chiefs Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The offensive line ranked first in ESPN’s pass block win rate and should remain a top unit in protecting Patrick Mahomes.
Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith make up one of the league’s best interior trios.
Humphrey was PFF’s highest-ranked center, Thuney was PFF’s top pass-blocking guard, and Smith finished top five in ESPN’s run block win rate.
Although the line will feature two new tackles, Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie finished first and second in pressures allowed by tackles last season.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
All three losses in 2022 were by four points or less, and the Chiefs are due for improved kicking luck.
Due to injuries, the Chiefs had four different players attempt kicks including a defense back attempting two extra points.
Combined, the kickers missed five extra points and eight field goals, finishing as the 32nd-ranked team in field goals over expectation.
Opposing kickers made 3.22 field goals over expectation, and the Chiefs finished with a 30th-ranked -5.71 net field goals over expectation.
» Bet the Chiefs Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Chiefs Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Chiefs were projected to have the toughest schedule last season.
However, only five teams they faced went over their win total, and the Chiefs ended up with the fourth-easiest schedule.
This season, the Chiefs are projected to face the fifth-most difficult schedule, the largest jump in difficulty over last season's actual strength of schedule.
The Chiefs’ unique three matchups feature the Eagles, Bengals, and Jaguars, two of whom are in the top five in Super Bowl odds.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Being good along with having good fortune is required for a lengthy playoff run, and the Chiefs benefitted from great health in 2022.
The offense and defense ranked among the top-10 healthiest units in the league as the Chiefs finished with the fourth-lowest adjusted games lost to injury.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Chiefs have the third-worst net rest advantage by the numbers, and all six games with a rest disadvantage are consecutive in the back half of the season from Week 12 through Week 17.
From Week 12 onward, the Chiefs are -20 in net rest including a game against the Bills off a bye week and the Bengals following a Monday night game.
» Bet the Chiefs Win Total Under
Kansas City Chiefs Strength of Schedule:
The Chiefs are ranked #28 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the fifth-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
