Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Colts Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Colts are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Colts Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
Colts quarterbacks were sacked 60 times in 2022.
Although the offensive line did not make significant upgrades, Anthony Richardson had the lowest pressure-to-sack rate of the first-round quarterbacks, and his mobility will help mask the offensive line that ranked 32nd in ESPN’s pass block win rate.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Colts are projected to play the third-easiest schedule.
In addition, the Colts play all 17 games on a Sunday, which will help a rookie coach as there are no short weeks.
The Colts have a positive net rest advantage as no opponents have a bye week prior to playing the Colts. In the two games in which the Colts have a rest disadvantage, they have the normal six days of rest.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
Improved luck in the red zone and turnovers will benefit the Colts in 2023.
They finished with a league-worst -13 turnover differential last season.
The defense finished last allowing a 67.9% touchdown rate in the red zone and the offense scored a touchdown on 45.8% of red zone trips, the fourth worst in the league.
The Colts finished the season with a -22.1% red zone differential, more than 5% worse than the 31st-ranked team.
» Bet the Colts Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Colts Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The league’s 32nd-ranked offense finished the season with the third-fewest adjusted games lost to injury.
As a team, the Colts had the seventh-fewest adjusted games lost, a significant improvement over the prior season.
The offense will have to deal with more injuries, and the depth will be tested more than last season.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The defense had a 29.8% pressure rate and allowed a 47.3 % success rate on dropbacks, both bottom 10 in the league.
The secondary lost veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore and is potentially one of the weakest in the league.
Opponents are likely to take advantage through the air if the defensive line continues to struggle to create pressure.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Over the past 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks have won 35.9% of games.
This number is elevated by rookie starters like Brock Purdy playing because of injuries to the starter.
The Colts’ roster has plenty of holes, and a team that is coming off a four-win season will be relying on a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach.
» Bet the Colts Win Total Under
Indianapolis Colts Strength of Schedule:
The Colts are ranked #3 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the third-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.