Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Commanders Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Commanders are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Commanders Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Commanders are tied for the league’s highest net rest advantage with five games with more rest than their opponent compared to a single game with less rest.
That is a large improvement over last season’s sixth-worst net rest.
Aiding the Commanders is the fact that they are not scheduled to play any Monday Night Football games and do not play any teams coming off a bye week.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The defense finished top five in EPA/play and first in defensive success rate while playing a top-10 schedule difficulty of opposing offenses.
Positive regression in turnovers forced is likely as the defense forced 18 turnovers including nine interceptions which was well below the league average.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The offensive line underachieved last season, ranking 27th in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 23rd in adjusted sack rate.
The 12th-ranked unit in our preseason rankings in 2022 struggled with injuries and used 11 different starters.
Improvement in health should allow the line to reach the top half of the league in efficiency.
» Bet the Commanders Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Commanders Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Commanders have the ninth-most difficult projected strength of schedule.
The other teams in the division are all projected to win over eight games.
The home schedule is among the league’s most difficult and includes visits from Buffalo, San Francisco, and Miami.
The Commanders face a gauntlet to finish out the season as five of their last six games are against opponents projected to win more than nine games.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Commanders finished 5-3-1 in one-score games, which could regress slightly in 2023.
They are projected to start a fifth-round quarterback with one career start and are projected to face a top-10 strength of defenses.
Fumble luck was on the Commanders' side, finishing fifth with 3.5 fumbles recoveries over expected.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Head coach Ron Rivera has not coached a winning season since 2017, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has questions surrounding his impact in an Andy Reid system.
With the sale of the team, noise around new ownership and the potential desire to bring in a new head coach could be an outside distraction for a team with an uphill battle to make the playoffs.
» Bet the Commanders Win Total Under
Washington Commanders Strength of Schedule:
The Commanders are ranked #24 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the ninth-hardest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.