Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Falcons Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Falcons are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Falcons Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Falcons have the second-easiest strength of schedule behind only their division rival New Orleans Saints.
The NFC South benefits from six games within the division and plays the AFC South.
As fourth-place finishers in the division last year, the Falcons draw the Cardinals and Commanders, two teams projected to finish last in their divisions.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The defense struggled in 2022, finishing with the fourth-worst EPA/play and success rate allowed and a league-worst 3.7% sack rate.
This year’s offensive strength of schedule projects to be the easiest in the league for the defense.
In addition, the defense made several key free agent additions – the Falcons spent the fifth-most in the league during free agency.
The Falcons also made a coordinator change in an all-out effort to improve upon last season's defensive performance.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
Marcus Mariota threw an inaccurate pass on 17.7% of his attempts, second worst to only Zach Wilson.
On passes of 15 air yards or more, both quarterbacks struggled as Mariota had a 37.3% inaccuracy rate and Desmond Ridder in a small sample had a 47.3% inaccuracy rate.
With elite receiving options Kyle Pitts and Drake London, improving on the league’s worst inaccuracy rate as a team will improve the offense.
» Bet the Falcons Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Falcons Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Falcons have the fourth-worst net rest edge and are the only team without a single game with a rest advantage.
Although not a rest disadvantage, the Falcons play the Texans on the road after playing in London without a bye in between, which is not factored into the rest disadvantage calculation.
The Falcons have three games with a rest disadvantage and travel overseas in 2023.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Falcons tied for the league lead with 13 one-score games last season, and their style of play allows for variance as the scores tend to be closer.
Arthur Smith’s run-first offense finished the season with a negative-13 pass rate over expected, the league's lowest early down pass rate, and the slowest pace of play when leading, things which tend to shorten games and increase variance.
As a result, higher luck and variance can affect the outcome of the games.
» Bet the Falcons Win Total Under
Atlanta Falcons Strength of Schedule:
The Falcons are ranked #2 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the second-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
