Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Jaguars Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Jaguars are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Jaguars Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
Doug Pederson’s Jaguars scored nearly 10 points more per game than Urban Meyer’s team.
More importantly, he rallied a team that entered the bye week with a 3-7 record. The Jaguars won six of their final seven games after the bye to win the division and make the playoffs.
Pederson provides stability and significantly improved the team from the beginning of the season. With more familiarity between the players and coach, it’s not unreasonable to see the Jaguars start stronger this season.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Jaguars were 4-6 in one-score games and are likely to see improved fumble and field goal luck.
Opposing kickers made 26/27 field goals against the Jaguars, 3.98 field goals over expectation.
The Jaguars lost a league-leading 13 fumbles, 4.6 fumbles over expectation.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
Trevor Lawrence took a gigantic step forward in his sophomore season. His completion percentage increased by 6.7%, his interception rate dropped by 50%, and his touchdown rate more than doubled.
The former No. 1 pick will have another playmaker with Calvin Ridley reinstated. The offense could take another step forward in 2023.
» Bet the Jaguars Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Jaguars Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Jaguars have an easier-than-average schedule, but they have the 10th-largest increase in difficulty. As division winners, the Jaguars play a first-place schedule of opponents.
Their unique three opponents are the Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers. The lone Thursday night game for Jaguars is a short-week road game against the Saints.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Jaguars were fortunate in terms of health on both sides of the ball in 2022. They had the second-fewest adjusted games lost to injury as a team, the defense had the second-best injury luck, and the offense finished sixth.
Injuries are likely to cause more chaos for the Jaguars in 2023 than last year.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Jaguars finished 31st in ESPN’s pass block win rate, a deficiency masked by Trevor Lawrence averaging 2.55 seconds to throw.
The analytically savvy Doug Pederson developed a game plan that minimized the weakness of the offensive line, but the offensive line is still a weakness.
Cam Robinson faces a PED suspension. That creates more concern with a rookie slated to play in his spot. The Jaguars added a skilled wide receiver and depth at running back, but the line could limit the offense.
» Bet the Jaguars Win Total Under
Jacksonville Jaguars Strength of Schedule:
The Jaguars are ranked #12 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 12th-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.