Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Jets Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Jets are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Jets Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The team with the longest playoff drought and that acquired a marquee quarterback finds themselves on the receiving end of the schedule maker’s good fortune.
The Jets are tied for the league’s best net rest advantage. Of the five games with a net rest advantage, four come after Week 11, providing a more significant advantage later in the season.
Buffalo and Miami play on Monday prior to their last game against New York and the Jets play on Thursday prior to their Week 17 matchup with the Patriots.
Another advantage is the fact that the Jets do not travel once from Week 6 through Week 9 as their lone road game is against the Giants.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Jets' quarterback play was abysmal in 2022 as both Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco finished 35th and 36th in completion rate over expected out of the 37 quarterbacks with over 200 plays.
Aaron Rodgers had a dip in his play last season, but he is a year removed from back-to-back MVP seasons and will provide a significant upgrade.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The Jets finished with the worst fumble luck.
Their -5.0 fumbles recovered over expected and -7 turnover differential will likely improve with better fumble luck and with Rodgers, who has a 1.2% interception rate over the past five seasons.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Jets Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
One year after facing the league’s most difficult schedule, the picture doesn’t get much better as the Jets have the seventh-most difficult schedule in 2023.
Rodgers will be tested in his opening stretch as the Jets face the hardest schedule in the first six weeks, featuring matchups against the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Jets defense finished the season allowing the third-lowest passing success rate.
Good fortune in terms of injury luck helped propel the defense as the Jets had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury.
The defense is projected to play the hardest schedule of passing offenses in 2023. Remaining as a top-three passing defense will be a difficult task.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Rodgers played behind an offensive line that allowed a 26.2% pressure rate last season. The Jets allowed a 35.9% pressure rate.
Mekhi Becton is a question mark as he has played one game in the past two seasons. Alijah Vera-Tucker missed more games than he played last season.
The Jets have a well-rounded roster, but the offensive line does create a little concern.
» Bet the Jets Win Total Under
New York Jets Strength of Schedule:
The Jets are ranked #26 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the seventh-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
