Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Lions Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Lions are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Lions Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Lions are projected to face the 11th-easiest schedule, a slight improvement over last season's 17th-easiest schedule.
Detroit has a negative net rest advantage but plays five games with a rest advantage and three with a rest disadvantage.
The Lions don’t play a single game with fewer than 6 days of rest and preparation.
Another anomaly is the fact that the Lions play three Thursday night games which provide three mini-byes throughout the season.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Following the Week 8 loss in 2022, the Lions fired their defensive backs coach, and the defense improved for the remainder of the season.
The defense went from allowing 32.14 points per game to 20.2 and allowing 6.51 yards per play to 5.97. They improved in red zone efficiency by more than 20%.
The offseason additions of Emmanuel Moseley, Cam Sutton, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson plus the late-season improvements give hope to what was one of the worst defenses through the first eight weeks of last season.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The Lions won eight of their final 10 games last season and exceeded their win total despite woeful injury luck.
The Lions had over 100 adjusted games lost to injury for the second consecutive season and finished 2022 with the sixth-worst injury luck.
» Bet the Lions Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Lions Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Lions took care of business against weaker opponents last season but finished the year 3-6 against teams with a winning record.
Although the Lions don’t face a gauntlet of opposing teams, only two opponents are projected for fewer than 7.5 wins, and only the Buccaneers are in the bottom-five teams in terms of Super Bowl odds.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Lions finished with a 4-5 record in one-score games but had a positive turnover differential in each of the one-score victories.
The +7 turnover differential was fourth best in the league and could regress in 2023.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Set to miss the first six games due to suspension, Jameson Williams will have recorded one reception through the first 23 games of his career.
The Lions are extremely thin at receiver and may need to rely on the 33-year-old Marvin Jones.
Not only thin at receiver, the offense may also feature a rookie tight end, traditionally a position that finds the NFL transition difficult.
Once Williams is back, the stylistic fit between him and Jared Goff may also be a concern. Goff has struggled with accuracy on deeper targets in his career.
» Bet the Lions Win Total Under
Detroit Lions Strength of Schedule:
The Lions are ranked #11 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 11th-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
