Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Packers Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Packers are predicted to win 7.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Packers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The offensive line returns with all five starters after finishing in the top ten of both ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate and Run Block Win rate and allowing the second-lowest pressure rate.
They did all of that despite missing David Bakhtiari for a third of the season.
The Packers project to face the easiest schedule in terms of opposing pass rush including opening the season against the two teams with the lowest pressure rate of 2022.
Jordan Love should have ample time to throw, improving his chance of success.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Packers open the season with a very manageable schedule.
The opening five games don’t feature a single opponent in the top eight in Super Bowl odds or with a double-digit projected win total.
The early Week 6 bye is also beneficial for Love, who is in his first season as a starting quarterback.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
Head coach Matt LaFleur has shifted the offense to one of the slowest in the league.
In his four seasons with the Packers, the offense has finished 28th, 32nd, 32nd, and 31st in offensive pace.
As early betting favorites in only six games this season, the slow-paced and high-variance game plan can be beneficial for a team that will need to generate upset victories.
» Bet the Packers Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Packers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The projected offensive skill position starters are extremely green, and the offense has a wide range of outcomes in terms of success.
Jordan Love has one career start and only 50 completions under his belt in his NFL career.
The receiving core consists of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, who have 41 and 42 career receptions, and will likely have rookies in the third receiver slot and at tight end.
With this much inexperience, the offense could have inconsistencies as the players become accustomed to the professional game.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Injury regression is likely in 2023 as the Packers finished last season with the sixth-fewest adjusted games lost to injury.
The defense was the fifth-healthiest unit in the league, and the offense finished as the ninth-least injured.
The skill position players on offense and the cornerbacks are thin on depth. Any injury regression could be troublesome this season.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Defensive third down and goal-to-goal regression could hinder the Packers this season.
The defense finished fifth with a -2.1% third down conversion allowed over expected rate and also finished fifth in goal-to-go efficiency, allowing a touchdown on 63.6% of drives.
That was 9% better than league average.
» Bet the Packers Win Total Under
Green Bay Packers Strength of Schedule:
The Packers are ranked #14 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 14th-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
