Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Patriots Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Patriots are predicted to win 7.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Patriots Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
Bill O’Brien taking over as offensive coordinator may be the biggest upgrade in coordinators of any team this offseason.
Matt Patricia’s offense finished bottom 10 in overall offensive efficiency, pass efficiency, rush efficiency, third down conversions, and dead last in red zone efficiency.
Compared to 2021, the offense averaged 40 yards fewer per game, the third down conversion rate dropped 9%, the red zone touchdown rate dropped 19.2%, and the goal-to-go touchdown rate dropped 15.7%. The Patriots averaged six fewer points per game.
O’Brien brings experience that will help improve the offense.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Patriots have a +6 day net rest advantage, the ninth largest in the league.
Two of the three games in which the Patriots have a rest advantage are in the back half of the season in Week 12 following their bye and in Week 15 following a Thursday Night Football game.
The Patriots do not play a single team coming off a bye in 2023.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
In addition to the offensive struggles, the defense was 12th worst in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on 58% of red zone trips.
The Patriots finished the season with a -15.8% red zone differential, the third-worst margin in the league. They will likely experience positive regression in 2023.
» Bet the Patriots Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Patriots Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Patriots are projected to have the most difficult NFL schedule in 2023.
The increased difficulty is a potential problem as the Patriots' eight wins came in 2022 came against Zach Wilson twice, Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt Mccoy, and the tandem of Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson.
The first four weeks of the schedule are against teams projected to finish the season with a winning record.
Bill Belichick-led defenses tend to dominate rookie or inexperienced quarterbacks, but as it currently stands, the only quarterbacks the Patriots are projected to play with fewer than 30 starts are Anthony Richardson, Kenny Pickett, and Sam Howell.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Patriots finished with a 4-4 record in one-score games. However, they had an unsustainable +9 turnover differential in those eight games.
Negative luck regression in terms of health is probable, especially on defense where they finished the season with the fourth-fewest adjusted games lost to injury.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The offensive line finished last in ESPN’s run block win rate and 15th in pass block win rate in 2022.
The line was below average in 2022 and lost Isaiah Wynn and Marcus Cannon over the offseason.
The schedule of opposing pass rushes projects as the third-most difficult.
» Bet the Patriots Win Total Under
New England Patriots Strength of Schedule:
The Patriots are ranked #32 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
