The Conference Championship round has not even started, but sportsbooks have already posted lookahead lines for hypothetical Super Bowl matchups.
Let's look at all of the available lines before diving into some of the more interesting matchups.
Super Bowl Hypothetical Lookahead Lines
| Hypothetical Matchups | Favorite | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles | Bills | -1.5 | O/U 49.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles | Chiefs | -1.5 | O/U 46.5 |
| Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders | Bills | -4.5 | O/U 53.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Commanders | Chiefs | -5.5 | O/U 49.5 |
Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive FREE BETS from NFL expert Warren Sharp this weekend:
Bills @ Eagles (BUF -1.5)
If the Eagles can make it past their division rivals this weekend, they will see the same point spread regardless of their Super Bowl opponent. The lines for either a Bills or Chiefs matchup against Philadelphia both sit at -1.5 in favor of the AFC teams.
Buffalo’s scoring prowess gives them the leg up in terms of the higher total, and their lower money line (-120 compared to -125 for the Chiefs) presents a slightly higher-value payout. This line stands out mostly due to the disparity between these two AFC finalists, but we'll touch on that more later.
Bills @ Commanders (BUF -4.5)
Of all the lines offered, this is the only total to break 50 with an O/U of 53.5. This is likely because Buffalo and Washington both rank among the top-five highest scoring teams of the 2024 regular season — the Bills at second with 525 and the Commanders in fifth with 485.
This game also features the second-widest spread and money line at -4.5 and -230 in favor of the Bills. The only matchup with more distant odds would be a Washington date with the Chiefs, who are favored by -5.5 with the money line set at -250.
This could speak to the oddsmakers’ lack of faith in the Commanders defense, particularly in goal-to-go scenarios.
The Bills have registered a score on 82.9% of drives ending inside the 10 while Washington allows scores from this position 75.0% of the time.
The predominant discrepancy in these odds is that Buffalo scores at a much higher rate than Washington or Kansas City.
The Chiefs score every 26.6 offensive plays on average. Washington finds the end zone every 20.3 plays, but the Bills blow them both out of the water with an average rate of 16.5 plays per TD.
The total reflects this accurately, but one would think this also suggests the Commanders should face a higher spread against the Bills than the Chiefs, although it could just imply more faith in Kansas City’s stout defense.
Still, even a cornerback as talented as Trent McDuffie would have his hands full against this Jayden Daniels to Terry McLaurin connection, which accounted for 78 of Washington’s total points on the season.
Chiefs @ Eagles (KC – 1.5)
The total of 46.5 may seem low, but it is important to remember that Kansas City entered the playoffs with the fourth-fewest points scored of any qualifying team ahead of only the Steelers, Texans, and Rams, all of whom have been eliminated from contention.
Despite these teams both ranking in the top 10 of offensive EPA, the under is not an entirely unsafe bet here.
After all, the Chiefs only broke 30 points twice this season: once against the Panthers, who generated the lowest rate of pressure in the league, and once against a Tampa Bay team that posted the throw-lowest defensive EPA per play of all playoff teams (-0.01 ahead of only the Rams and Commanders).
