Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Raiders Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Raiders are predicted to win 5.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Raiders Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Raiders were 2022’s biggest Pythagorean underachiever in wins under expected, finishing 2.32 wins below expected.
They tied for the league-high with 13 one-score games but finished with a 4-9 record and a -7 turnover differential in those games.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Turnover regression would benefit the Raiders after finishing the season with the league's third-worst turnover differential.
Red zone efficiency improvements are also likely as the offense had a 48.9% red zone touchdown rate. The defense allowed a 66.0% touchdown rate, a net -17.1% difference, the second-worst in the league.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The offensive line returns all five starters, a unit that helped propel Josh Jacobs to a rushing title.
The offensive line led the league in adjusted line yards. ESPN had the line ranked 10th in pass block win rate and 11th in run block win rate, an impressive season for a unit that battled injuries and was ranked 25th in last year’s preseason rankings.
The offensive line has a chance to take another step forward this season with continuity and improved health.
» Bet the Raiders Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Raiders Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The AFC West schedule is brutal this season.
Even though the Raiders get the third-place schedule of opponents, they have the second-largest jump in year-over-year difficulty.
The Raiders are projected to face the second-most difficult schedule of opponents. Their schedule includes six divisional games and four games against the strong AFC East.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Regression is likely in the luck department for the Raiders as their field goal and fumble luck from 2022 is likely unsustainable.
Daniel Carlson is among the league’s best kickers, but he made 3.97 field goals over expectation, which will be difficult to repeat.
Opponents missed 3.35 field goals over expectation, and the Raiders finished with the second-highest net field goal over expectation.
The Raiders also finished fourth in fumble luck, finishing the season with 3.5 fumble recoveries over expected.
» Bet the Raiders Win Total Under
Las Vegas Raiders Strength of Schedule:
The Raiders are ranked #31 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the second-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
