Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Rams Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Rams are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Rams Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
Injuries struck the Rams in 2022 as they finished with the second-highest adjusted games lost to injury and had the highest year-over-year games lost.
The offense was hit hardest in the league as not only did the Rams lose Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford to injury, but the entire unit was the most injured in the league.
The offensive line had one starter play all 17 games and was forced to use 14 different starters throughout the season.
The most frequent five linemen finished the season playing 29% of snaps together, the lowest in terms of continuity in the league.
Regression to the mean in terms of injuries is likely in 2023.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Rams have the fifth-largest improvement in year-over-year schedule difficulty and are projected to play a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule.
There are only three rookie head coaches in 2023, and the Rams are fortunate to play a total of three games against two of the rookies, matchups the veteran Sean McVay will have a significant coaching advantage in.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Rams Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Rams play five games with a rest disadvantage compared to two games with a rest advantage, resulting in a -17 day net rest edge, the league’s second-worst total.
The Rams play four teams off bye weeks including back-to-back games against the Steelers and Cowboys coming off their bye in Weeks 7 and 8 and the Ravens and Commanders in Weeks 14 and 15.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The roster and depth are weak because of trading multiple picks to win the Super Bowl in 2021.
The defense lost perennial pro-bowler Jalen Ramsey and will see regression as the league’s top red zone defense.
Options to fill roster holes are limited as the Rams have $74 million to dead money consuming nearly a third of the salary cap budget, the second-highest in the NFL.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Rams did not defeat a single team that finished 2022 with a winning record, going 0-8 against such teams.
The Rams' games against the Cardinals are in Weeks 6 and 12, allowing a greater chance that Kyler Murray will be active.
Outside of the two division matchups against the Cardinals, the only other game against the bottom five teams in terms of Super Bowl odds is against the Colts.
» Bet the Rams Win Total Under
Los Angeles Rams Strength of Schedule:
The Rams are ranked #15 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 15th-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
