Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Saints Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Saints are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Saints Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Saints are projected to face the league’s easiest schedule, the third-best improvement from last season.
In terms of Super Bowl odds, the Saints do not play any opponents ranked in the top five and play five games against the bottom five teams.
In addition to the soft schedule, the Saints have a positive net rest advantage and play four games with a rest advantage compared to two games with a rest disadvantage.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Saints finished with two fumble recoveries under expectation and the second-worst turnover differential (-11).
New Orleans finished last in net field goals over expectation.
The most frequently used offensive line played 39.2% of snaps, which ranked third-lowest in the league as no offensive lineman played all 17 games.
Luck regression should benefit the Saints after they were bottom ten in field goal luck, fumble luck, injury luck, and turnover differential.
» Bet the Saints Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Saints Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
Both the offensive and defensive lines have concerns, so the Saints may struggle to win the battle in the trenches.
Last year, the offensive line finished 16th in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 20th in run block win rate.
They finished 26th in PFF’s run blocking and pass blocking grades.
There were no significant additions to this unit over the offseason.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The defensive line finished last in ESPN’s pass rush win rate and 25th in run stop win rate.
They will likely see sack regression after totaling 48 sacks despite a below-average 30.6% pressure rate in 2022.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Questions surround the veterans once again this season.
Michael Thomas’ health is difficult to project, and Alvin Kamara is set to miss the first three games due to suspension.
Many of the key contributors are beyond the performance and health age apex.
Cameron Jordan is entering his age-34 season, Tyrann Mathieu turns 32, and two offensive line starters turn 30.
As a result, health and performance could be highly volatile.
» Bet the Saints Win Total Under
New Orleans Saints Strength of Schedule:
The Saints are ranked #1 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.