Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Steelers Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Steelers are predicted to win 9 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Steelers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Steelers are projected to face the eighth-easiest schedule, a significantly softer schedule than last year.
The Steelers finished 2022 with a 2-5 record against teams with a winning record. In addition to the easier schedule, the Steelers are not scheduled to play any team coming off a bye week this season.
The Steelers also host the Patriots in a short week home game in Week 14 and have two three-day rest advantages in the back half of the season.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Kenny Pickett’s box scores don’t jump out, but the rookie quarterback is set to make a significant step forward in his sophomore season.
Pickett went 7-4 as a starter – not counting the game he was concussed after four snaps – and he won the final five games in which he started and wasn’t forced to leave with an injury.
He led the league with a 75.6% catchable deep ball rate and a 73.8% catchable rate under pressure rate.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The Steelers are due for improvement in field goal and fumble luck. They recovered three of 11 opponent fumbles, 3.1 fumble recoveries fewer than expected. The Steelers also had the seventh-worst field goal luck.
» Bet the Steelers Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Steelers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Steelers were the least injured team in 2022, something that will regress in 2023.
The offense lost 3.2 games to injury all season, and the offensive line started the same five starters for all 17 weeks of the season. The starting offensive line played over 95% of the snaps, which is an unsustainable rate.
The depth is likely to be tested more than it was in 2022.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The secondary allowed 0.08 EPA per dropback, the eighth-highest in the league. Although not a glaring weakness, the secondary lost Cam Sutton and will rely on Patrick Peterson, who turns 33 in July.
The cornerbacks will be tested this season, especially in divisional matchups against Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson twice. Additionally, the Steelers can be attacked in the middle of the field given their weakness at linebacker.
Last season, the Steelers allowed the third-worst efficiency on running back passes, which could be a weakness again this season.
» Bet the Steelers Win Total Under
Pittsburgh Steelers Strength of Schedule:
The Steelers are ranked #8 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 8th-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.