Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Texans Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Texans are predicted to win 6 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Texans Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Texans have the seventh-easiest projected schedule.
Similarly to the Colts, the Texans play all 17 games on a Sunday, which should benefit a rookie head coach and quarterback combination.
The two divisional games against the Titans are in Weeks 15 and 17, which increases the possibility the Titans will be starting Will Levis.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
On paper, C.J. Stroud is a huge upgrade over the combination of Davis Mills and Kyle Allen, who were downright dreadful in 2022.
Both finished with more than 15% of their passes charted as incompletions due to inaccuracy.
The offense finished with a league-worst 37.9% success rate and averaged -0.17 EPA per play.
The offense was the worst in the league and can’t help but improve this season.
The rookie quarterback will be protected by two very good tackles in Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard. If second-year guard Kenyon Green can improve in his sophomore season, the offensive line can be an above-average unit.
» Bet the Texans Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Texans Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
Last year, the Texans didn’t win a single game by more than one score and had a single win against a team that finished with a winning record.
That win came against the Jaguars early in the season in a game where Trevor Lawrence threw two interceptions.
They had a +2 turnover margin in two of their three wins, and the third victory was a last minute two-point conversion that will be remembered for years to come.
The Texans were 0-11 against opponents that were not in their division. Increasing by four wins is an uphill battle for a team led by a rookie head coach and quarterback.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
For the offense to make a big enough improvement, the receiving options will need to outplay their expectations.
Newly signed tight end Dalton Schultz produced a negative EPA per target on the Cowboys last season, and John Metchie is coming back from a serious illness.
The 31-year-old Robert Woods posted a 1.14 yards per route run last season, and it is not clear Nico Collins is ready to be the top receiver.
In addition to the lackluster receiving group and rookie quarterback, the Texans have a first-time offensive coordinator.
The ceiling may be limited in C.J. Stroud’s rookie season.
» Bet the Texans Win Total Under
Houston Texans Strength of Schedule:
The Texans are ranked #7 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the seventh-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.