Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Titans Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Titans are predicted to win 7.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Titans Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Titans' schedule and net rest edge are significantly better than average and will decrease their chances of drafting in the top five in 2023. The Titans have the ninth-easiest schedule and the fourth-best net rest advantage.
They play four games with a rest advantage compared to a single game with a one-day rest disadvantage. The Titans don’t play a single opponent coming off a bye week or even a Thursday Night Football game. They benefit from divisional games and matchups against the NFC South.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Titans finished 5-6 in one-score games in 2022 and are due for improved field goal and fumble luck. The Titans recovered -3.2 fumbles over expectation, the fourth-worst mark in the league. Opponents made 88.9% of field goal attempts against the Titans, 2.1 field goals over expectation.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The defense finished the season with the most adjusted games lost to injury. As a team, the Titans finished third in adjusted games lost. The Titans had a 49.5-game increase in adjusted games lost from the prior season.
The Titans were a pass funnel, finishing with the best DVOA against the run and the 28th-ranked DVOA against the pass. Improved injury luck should allow the secondary to improve.
» Bet the Titans Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Titans Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The offense is built around a 29-year-old running back with 1,906 carries in his NFL career, playoffs included, and the offensive line is among the league’s worst if not the worst. The offensive line has very little continuity from last season with significant subtractions of Taylor Lewan and Nate Davis.
It is unlikely this unit outperforms last season’s group. They ranked 16th in ESPN’s run block win rate and 26th in pass block win rate.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Ran Carthon is in his first season as general manager and moved up to draft Will Levis.
Ryan Tannehill’s dead cap hit as a post-June 1 cut next offseason is $4.6 million. The writing is on the wall that Levis is the quarterback of the future in Tennessee. It is safe to assume that management will advocate for Levis to get playing experience this season, and that will likely start down the stretch.
Before their Week 7 bye, the Titans have the fourth-most difficult schedule. It includes games against the Chargers, Browns, Bengals, and Ravens. There is a very real chance that Levis exits the bye as the starter if the Titans start slow against a tough schedule.
» Bet the Titans Win Total Under
Tennessee Titans Strength of Schedule:
The Titans are ranked #9 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the ninth-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
