Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Vikings Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Vikings win this season?
The Vikings are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Vikings Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The Vikings outgained opponents by a narrow margin, averaging 5.70 yards/play while giving up 5.66 yards per play however were outgained on first downs as the defense gave up 5.96 yards/play. The defense was abysmal on first down allowing the highest success rate of passes and rushes.
The defensive line had the fifth-highest adjusted games lost to injury, per Football Outsiders, which likely exacerbated the first down metrics. The addition to the defensive line of Za’Darius Smith, Harrison Phillips, and the return of Danielle Hunter should help with both the run and pass.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
Minnesota has the eighth-largest improvement in strength of schedule in 2022. Facing the 10th-hardest schedule of opponents in 2021, eight of the Vikings' nine losses were by eight points or fewer. A slightly easier schedule could help reduce the number of losses in one-score games.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
Kirk Cousins had the fourth-lowest percentage of inaccurate passes and had a positive completion rate over expected 2021. The Vikings' offense also benefits from Cousins’s ability to avoid mistakes as he had the fourth-lowest percentage of dropbacks resulting in a sack or interception. A new head coach may be able to help this offense become a top-10 unit.
» Bet the Vikings Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Vikings Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Head coach Kevin O’Connell led the league with 86% of offensive plays in 11 personnel, whereas the Vikings only used 11 personnel on 47% of plays. The 2021 Vikings were not efficient in 1-1 formations as the 44% success rate was below league average.
The Vikings are better suited for formations with two wide receivers and receiver depth could be an issue if Adam Thielen can’t remain healthy.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The offensive line has been on the list requiring an upgrade for several seasons. The interior of the line is a position of concern heading into 2022. After finishing with the eighth-lowest Pass Block Win Rate an immediate improvement from the offensive line is not certain.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The Vikings finished 2021 with a +10 turnover differential, the fifth-highest in the league. Regression is likely as the team finished third in fumble luck recovering four fumbles over expectation.
The Vikings also benefitted in interceptions, as Cousins reduced his turnovers from 13 in 2020 to seven in 2021. The Vikings are unlikely to finish with a double-digit turnover differential in consecutive seasons.
» Bet the Vikings Win Total Under
Minnesota Vikings Strength of Schedule:
The Vikings are ranked #16 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them an average schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.