Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Vikings Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Vikings are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Vikings Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The rushing attack struggled, finishing with a 38.1% success rate (25th) and 4.1 yards per carry (26th).
The offensive line struggled to stay healthy in 2022 but will return all five starters.
The rushing struggles can partially be attributed to injury as there was a significant decline without one of Christian Darrisaw, Garrett Bradbury, or Brian O’Neill. With those three on the field together, the Vikings averaged 4.7 yards per carry and a 42.6% success rate.
Familiarity and improved health should provide the Vikings with improved rushing success in 2023.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The secondary was among the league’s worst in 2022, finishing bottom 10 in EPA per dropback.
Brian Flores takes over as the new defensive coordinator, and there is optimism for improvement on the defensive side of the ball.
Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth Jr. had injury-riddled rookie seasons. The Vikings also signed Byron Murphy Jr. to give the secondary more talent.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The Vikings finished with the fourth-worst field goal luck.
Greg Joseph finished with a career-low field goal percentage, and opponents made 3.53 field goals over expectation.
A bounceback from Joseph combined with some good fortune on opponent field goals is likely to occur.
» Bet the Vikings Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Vikings Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Vikings are projected to have the eighth-most difficult strength of schedule, the seventh-biggest jump in difficulty from 2022.
Making the schedule more difficult are four matchups against the top five teams in Super Bowl odds.
The Vikings play the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, and Bengals.
They finished 4-3 against teams that finished with a winning record in 2022 but had a negative-47 point differential in those games.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Vikings rode an unprecedented 11-0 record in one-score games last season that will not be replicated.
Nine of the Vikings’ victories were comebacks in which they trailed at halftime. They trailed by double digits in four of those including a historic 33-point comeback.
In the four losses, the Vikings were outscored by 89 points and finished the season with a negative point differential despite a 13-4 record.
The Vikings finished the season as the biggest overachiever in Pythagorean wins with 4.68 wins over expected.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
Injury luck was a critical component of the Vikings' good fortune in 2022.
The team had the fifth-lowest adjusted games lost to injury, a significant jump from finishing 21st in 2021.
The offense especially benefited as the adjusted games lost was a third of the total from the previous season.
» Bet the Vikings Win Total Under
Minnesota Vikings Strength of Schedule:
The Vikings are ranked #25 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the eighth-hardest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
