Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings will take the crown from Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North starting Week 1.
Out west, Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos will show that they are a force this year and Seattle Seahawks, Drew Lock, and Geno Smith will show that they are competing for the number one spot in the 2023 NFL draft.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)
You simply cannot argue with the numbers about Aaron Rodgers and the evidence of his incredible talent. Many claim he is the greatest ever at his position. I believe those people are overvaluing his ability, not talent, to lead a team to a Super Bowl.
I can argue with that ability to win the highest crown as a team with only one Super Bowl under his belt. “Only” maybe should never be used, but when he quite possibly may be the most talented player to ever play quarterback in a quarterback-centered league, I decided to use it.
On the other side you have a quarterback in Kirk Cousins who I believe has had SOME non-justified criticism during the last few years of his career. Sure his record in primetime is often brought up… especially by the wagering community.
But overall, his numbers are solid in arguably, one of my least favorite offensive schemes in the NFL. He is known as one of the better leaders in the locker room in the league and that is way underrated.
By now, you may be thinking that I am out of my mind. Green Bay is currently sitting as the fifth most likely to win the Super Bowl according to the odds in Las Vegas at 12 /1. Minnesota is 40/1.
Let’s look at why I really like Minnesota, underdogs of 1.5 points currently, to win the game in what could be a little bit of a shootout between the two quarterbacks.
In Cousins, the majority sees a product of an offense that was not very good scheme-wise and conservative in the play calling. He was often in bad situations regarding down and distance where defenses knew he had to pass, more than what he should have been.
I see a guy who ranked eighth in DVOA, behind Rodgers who was the best.
I watch a quarterback who was seventh last year in DYAR, behind Rodgers who was second. Cousins was third among full-time starting quarterbacks in fewest interceptions with seven, behind Rodgers with four.
Cousins had a 33/7 TD/INT ratio. Rodgers was 37/4. We are seeing a trend here that Kirk Cousins is definitely a top-six or seven quarterback in what was a bad offense.
In one of my favorite categories, Cousins finished right behind Rodgers, fourth, in completion percentage over expectation. By the way, that’s 16 slots above Justin Herbert, 20 above Lamar Jackson, and 21 above Patrick Mahomes. In this league, you better be able to complete the throws you should, and some you shouldn’t.
Add in a new head coach in Kevin O’Connell and throw in a very good quarterback in that offense that shows so many looks, different formations, and gets receivers the ball on the move, and you have the beginning of a big year.
O’Connell, by many accounts, has what it takes to be a tremendous playcaller. I truly believe play calling is the single biggest difference maker on game day in the game of football at any level.
O’Connell has learned from some good coaches such as Bill Belichick (drafted and played there) and Sean McVay, along with getting to spend some time in the QB room with Tom Brady.
Don’t forget that Cousins has arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson. You can’t argue that Jefferson is the best intermediate receiver.
Last season, Jefferson ranked first in yards per route run of 11-19 yards with 6.93. That’s not the impressive part. Jefferson’s average was 21% better than the next best, Tee Higgins of the Bengals.
Rumors have it that Jefferson will now move all over the field but might be an even better option at receiver because he is completely capable of being outside and inside due to his size and ability.
Let’s look at the matchups themselves. In preseason unit rankings from the site, the Packers were voted as the best secondary in the NFL.
Let’s not forget that Cousins also has Adam Thielen (ranked No. 30 in DVOA, and No. 17 in catch rate). The Packers will have their hands full with the Vikings, who ranked as the ninth-best receiving corp in the league.
Again, add in what I believe will be a much better offense and I think the advantage is in Minnesota’s favor. Remember, a good pass beats good coverage.
Flip it over and you have the 26th ranked secondary for the Vikings with the No. 29 ranked Packers receivers. Yep, take out the second-best wide receiver in the league in Davante Adams and that’s what they have left.
Rodgers will still work some game magic here and there and I don’t look for a fall off in yards or touchdowns simply because I think they will be playing from behind a little more. But winning is going to be far more challenging than has been in the past.
As far as the big men on defense, the front seven, the Packers come in ranked No 11 by Sharp Football Analysis vs. a No. 21 ranked Viking group. This is the area that concerns me the most for the Vikings. They have to find a way to rush the quarterback.
I can’t get that image of the Steelers in the second half after looking like they didn’t know how to play at all, almost coming back and winning that Vikings game last year while watching Big Ben have way too much time to throw.
The offensive line will give Rodgers a chance to at least wait until the receiving corps has the time to get open. Expect a lot more passes to backs out of the backfield this year as those receivers will have a harder time getting open than Davante Adams did.
For Minnesota, Cousins will have to make better presnap reads and get the ball out quicker with that 26th-ranked offensive line against the Packers’ ninth-ranked front seven. But I do believe the offensive line will improve as well with the type of offense they will play.
There won’t be as many seven-step drops, half boots, and must-throw downs. Mix in motions, more gun, the propensity for teams to rush only four because quarterbacks are getting better and better at beating blitzes, and I think Cousins could really have a great year numbers-wise.
I believe this is the year that Cousins lives up to those contracts he signed over the past few years.
Maybe the greatest beneficiary of the new offense besides Jefferson will be Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook. He flourished in this type of offense at FSU averaging almost 1,500 yards a year rushing and another 300 receiving. He needs the threat of the quick passing game to keep linebackers from coming downhill so hard in the run game.
The addition of using more 11 personnel will open up some run lanes before the ball is even snapped. On the other side, Aaron Jones is no slouch coming in at 13th in DVOA for all running backs. A.J.Dillon coming in from time to time helps too.
With Minnesota currently an underdog and it being a home game, having to win the game to win a bet seems like somewhere I will spend some money. With a fresh year, new approach, and optimism abounding, I think the crowd might be worth a little more than the normal expectation.
I am hanging my hat on the fact that I think Cousins, Cook, and Jefferson will all fit really well in the new offense, and it will greatly aid that offensive line.
I also think Rodgers will try to do a little too much leading to some turnovers and it might take a couple of games to figure out who he can count on the most in crucial moments. If Robert Tonyan, who is questionable, is out, I think they have even bigger problems.
Oh, and don’t forget the NFC North title, it will belong to the Vikings at the end of the year too.
Let’s get that Viking horn going loud and watch them win the game by 6-10 points.
Denver Broncos (-6) at Seattle Seahawks
Moving to the left coast, an interesting game will take place Monday night in Seattle. The biggest star in Seahawks history returns to show them what life without him will be like.
The Denver Broncos are my dark horse pick for the Super Bowl out of the AFC and Seattle is my pick to battle the Giants for the first pick in the draft next year. I know the Broncos may be in the toughest division in the NFL with the Chargers, Raiders, and Chiefs all having a legitimate shot at that division.
A long time saying I like to live by, “what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger,” I think can apply to Denver.
In their division, they will play against so many different strengths, some great front sevens, defensive backs, offensive units, etc. That will have them ready for their other 11 games outside the division.
The poor Seahawks, however, are also in a tough division and are losing a generational quarterback that would have been even better in the right offense. Seattle limps into the year with arguably the worst combination of offensive line and defensive front sevens in the game.
Teams can win games with one of the two, either an awesome quarterback or an awesome group up front on both sides. But if you have neither, and I feel like the Seahawks are in that situation, then you have a very long season ahead of you.
Getting back to the Broncos, expectations have raised significantly with the acquisition of Russell Wilson and the new ownership of the Walton family. I think both play a part.
The Waltons are used to winning and getting what they want. They built an absolute empire from a nickel and dime store in rural Arkansas. They should know how to find resources and great minds and put them to use to build a winner.
I have been saying for years that playing quarterback in the NFL is the single most difficult job on the planet. I didn’t say it was the most important, but the hardest. Think about it like this.
Think of a couple of hugely important jobs and ones that seem like they would be insanely difficult and maybe even have a life on the line WHILE you are doing it.
Maybe that’s a neurosurgeon or a heart doctor. There are thousands of surgeons in the world that can operate effectively on the brain and the heart. But, and this is my belief and I want you to really think about this, there are only about nine guys on the planet that can lead a team to a Super Bowl win in any given year.
Yes, nine. The rest of them will try but let’s be realistic. Russell Wilson, in my humble opinion, is one of them.
When the Seahawks and that 12th man are on defense, they don’t put a lot of pressure on the quarterback, they aren’t great against the run, and really they haven’t shown the desire to show the offense a lot of looks.
There are two theories on that from a coach’s perspective. They either just want to do a few things so they can get really good at those (which they haven’t done for years) or they just don’t feel like they have the talent to do many things.
Either way, it’s not good for a team that will have even more pressure on them with Geno Smith taking over on the other side.
The only positive I see is that the defense of Seattle will have to be creative for them to have any chance to win games. Sometimes that can mean disaster when you have to do something out of the comfort zone of the head coach and defensive coordinator.
The secondary isn’t exactly going to help them much either, coming in as the No. 25-ranked secondary in the entire league. That isn’t going to be good going against a Broncos group of receivers and tight ends that I believe is underrated.
Denver didn’t exactly light it up on defense last year coming in at No. 21 in DVOA defensively, but I think that can be helped this year by the positive attitude Wilson brings towards expectations, the pressure lifted off them now that they have a QB that they know can go win a game.
They'llbe able to hold the ball and make more first downs, hold the ball longer, and playing at the back in will be the No.8 ranked secondary in the league.
I could argue that the Seahawks have had one of the worst, if not the worst, offensive lines in front of him in the past five years. Certainly, they are in the conversation.
Wilson endured, made them competitive, and won some games he probably shouldn’t have. He gets an improvement to at least an offensive line that is middle of the pack. Wilson will feel like he has days back there compared to what he is used to having.
Add that to a talented receiving corp as we mentioned, and a good running back committee and Russell Wilson will have far less pressure to make something happen all the time to playing with confidence within what he is supposed to do.
I am a Russell Wilson fan and am probably a little biased. But his offense in Seattle was absolutely atrocious, predictable, and didn’t highlight its true strength, the quarterback.
They went through a stretch where they would “let Russ cook” and cooking he was for a bit, among the leaders in the league in a few categories. Then they started letting the running game simmer, and things went bad.
As for the famous 12th man, it’s hard to get excited when you are losing and I suspect this game goes bad early and never really recovers. A lot of the people in attendance may actually be cheering for Wilson because of the way he conducted himself there and also because he left them with a couple of super bowl appearances.
The line of -6 on this game almost seems too generous but I do understand not wanting it to be over a touchdown in the first game of season, with a road team laying the points.
Denver should be able to run the ball and pass the ball effectively on Seattle. I suspect they move the ball up and down the field. They might end up kicking a few field goals due to early part of the season and missing some timing, but they will score.
Seattle should have trouble even though Denver’s defense isn’t exactly a juggernaut. I started to think this might be an over game but not sure Seattle is good enough to take advantage of anything Denver is weak at.
Seattle will run the football with Rashaad Penny some and they will make a few plays with DK Metcalf being such a good player that he can make some plays on his own and Tyler Lockett always making a few plays that surprise. It won’t be enough.
I look for the Broncos to win this one by 13-17 points in an early season statement.