As we head into Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape, and several marquee matchups could have significant implications for both standings and betting lines.
With divisional rivalries heating up and high-powered offenses clashing, this week offers intriguing opportunities for sharp bettors looking to capitalize on spreads and totals.
Let's dive into three key games: the Steelers hosting the Ravens in a classic AFC North showdown, the Chiefs traveling to face the Bills in what promises to be an offensive masterclass, and the Colts visiting the Jets in a matchup where defensive strengths may dictate the pace.
Each of these games presents unique factors that could influence betting outcomes, from quarterback play to defensive trends, and we’ll break down why certain spreads and totals offer value for bettors.
Week 11 Best Bet Prediction: Steelers +3 vs. Ravens
Russell Wilson‘s return to action for the Steelers could be the ace up their sleeve against a Ravens pass defense that has been about as reliable as a screen door in a submarine.
In his first three starts for Pittsburgh, Wilson has flashed his trademark playmaking, racking up 737 yards, 6 touchdowns, and only 1 pick — proving that his veteran savvy isn’t just gathering dust in the Steel City.
His renowned deep ball accuracy has already been on display, connecting on eight passes of 20+ yards and showcasing that classic moonshot accuracy.
It’s a style that might have the Ravens' secondary singing the blues, especially considering their struggles all season.
Baltimore ranks dead last in the league giving up a generous 294 passing yards per game. The Ravens have become an all-you-can-eat buffet for opposing quarterbacks, with 76% of touchdowns allowed coming through the air, second worst in the NFL.
It’s been even worse on the road.
Baltimore’s pass defense is like trying to patch a sinking ship with chewing gum, and with safety Kyle Hamilton potentially sidelined with an ankle injury, they’re treading in dangerous waters.
Wilson’s knack for spreading the wealth — finding nine different targets against Washington — is a recipe for chaos against a banged-up Ravens unit that’s already been burned repeatedly.
This matchup sets up perfectly for the Steelers' air attack to soar.
If Wilson keeps dealing like he has been, the Ravens defense could find themselves trapped in a black-and-gold nightmare en route to a possible upset win at home.
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Week 11 Prediction: Chiefs +110 at Bills
Kansas City has assembled an arsenal of offensive firepower that could dismantle Buffalo’s defense. The addition of Kareem Hunt has supercharged the Chiefs’ running game, injecting a jolt of energy and providing a reliable ground threat that keeps defenses honest.
Hunt’s dual-threat capability as both a punishing rusher and a sneaky receiver adds a layer of versatility, making it a guessing game for the Bills' defense on every snap.
Rookie speedster Xavier Worthy has had some struggles, but he has proven capable of stretching the field and creating explosive play opportunities. His blistering speed is a constant reminder for defenses that a single misstep can lead to a highlight-reel touchdown, opening up space underneath for other receivers to feast.
This dynamic could prove particularly challenging for a Bills secondary that has shown inconsistencies this season.
The recent addition of DeAndre Hopkins might be the crown jewel that takes this offense to the next level.
Hopkins, a proven playmaker, brings veteran savvy, masterful route-running, and Velcro-like hands to an already formidable receiving corps.
His 14 catches on 17 targets since joining Kansas City show an instant chemistry with Mahomes. Hopkins’ knack for winning one-on-one battles and making acrobatic catches in tight windows gives Mahomes a clutch, go-to target in critical moments.
Together, the trifecta of Hunt’s versatility, Worthy’s game-breaking speed, and Hopkins’ elite receiving prowess create a three-headed monster that’s tough to contain. The Chiefs' red zone efficiency has spiked in recent weeks, with both attempts and touchdown percentage on the rise, showcasing just how potent this attack can be.
The Chiefs' full offensive arsenal is set to face a Bills defense that has shown significant vulnerabilities this season.
Buffalo has allowed 331 passing yards to C.J. Stroud, 199 rushing yards to Derrick Henry, and an 89% completion rate to Tua Tagovailoa. Buffalo’s susceptibility to both air and ground assaults makes them ripe for exploitation from every angle.
With Mahomes now armed with this enhanced offensive arsenal, he’s primed to attack Buffalo’s vulnerable defense and put the Chiefs in an excellent position to pull off the road win.
Week 11 Prediction: Chiefs at Bills Over 45.5
The Bills offense may be in the midst of a surge, scoring 30-plus points in each of its last four games. One of the key factors has been Josh Allen‘s efficiency and ability to spread the ball around.
He’s now thrown at least 280 yards in three of his last four games after not doing so once in his first six games.
Despite a couple of interceptions, Allen has consistently moved the chains and created scoring opportunities, averaging 4.5 third down conversions per game on the season but an efficient 6.7 in the last three games, sixth most in that span.
While the Chiefs defense has been solid overall, seventh in yards per play, their recent lack of interceptions, having failed to force a pick in their last three games, could benefit Allen, who is likely to have more freedom to take risks downfield without the immediate threat of turnovers disrupting drives.
With both teams possessing elite quarterbacks and dynamic playmakers on offense, this matchup will likely surpass the 45.5-point total.
Week 11 Prediction: Colts at Jets Under 44
Anthony Richardson‘s struggles with accuracy have been a significant hindrance to the Colts offense.
He's completed only 44% of his passes with 4 touchdowns against 7 interceptions.
Yet, he’s back as the starter over Joe Flacco.
This poor completion rate and tendency for turnovers could lead to numerous stalled drives and limited scoring opportunities for Indianapolis.
In response to Richardson's passing woes, the Colts could lean heavily on their running game, particularly with Jonathan Taylor coming off one of his best performances of the season, rushing for 114 yards against the Bills. This run-heavy approach could result in a more clock-consuming, lower-scoring game.
The Jets offense has been far from explosive, with Aaron Rodgers throwing for 233 yards or less in his last three games and his passing average steadily declining from 8.3 to 6.6 to 4.3 yards per attempt (averaging 6.4 overall).
The Jets' offensive struggles are compounded by injuries to key offensive line starters (Tyron Smith, Alijah Vera–Tucker, and Morgan Moses) and the underwhelming impact of Davante Adams, who has only 20 receptions on 39 targets with just a single score.
Rodgers' apparent lack of chemistry with his receivers further hampers the Jets' offensive potential.
Additionally, the Jets defense has not been as good lately, but they have played well at home, leading the league in touchdowns allowed per game.
These factors combined – Richardson's inaccuracy, the Colts' potential run-heavy strategy, Rodgers' declining passing numbers, offensive line injuries, and the Jets' strong home defense – all point towards a game that's likely to stay under the 44-point total.
